U.S. Open Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

SOUTHAMPTON, N.Y. – Over the past half-decade, I’ve written some semblance of the following sentence in advance of every annual edition of the United States Open Championship:

This is the major which used to be the domain of the plodders – players such as Corey Pavin and Lee Janzen and Jim Furyk – but in recent years, the U.S. Open has become a smasher’s paradise, with Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm and others bludgeoning their way to victory.

I’m not going to suggest that simply because last year’s edition of this tournament was won by J.J. Spaun, who recalls those winners of a previous generation more than the recent champions, the entire trend has been reversed, but there remain other hints that Shinnecock Hills Golf Club can’t simply be overpowered this week.

First, a quick history lesson: The reason why precision prevailed for so long at the U.S. Open was simple enough. Wayward tee shots often found thick, gnarly rough, which made proficient approach shots more improbable than those from the short stuff. What’s happened in recent years, though – think Winged Foot in 2020, which really epitomized this idea – is that fairways were narrowed by such a degree that even the most accurate drivers were missing ‘em.

Well, if everyone is going to be in the rough, you’d prefer a strong, powerful player from some 50 yards closer than one who isn’t used to missing fairways. That helps explain why DeChambeau, the longest hitter at the time, lapped the field at a venue which was as claustrophobic as any which hosts the U.S. Open.

This week, Shinnecock will feature wider fairways than most U.S. Open courses and wider fairways than it has in the past, averaging 48 yards across and up to 62 yards at times.

What it means is that a greater percentage of tee shots should find the short stuff, but those which do miss should receive a more severe penalty, suggesting higher variance between those who continually hit the fairways and those who don’t.

Or as Rory McIlroy has said, “The [fairways] are more generous than they were in 2018. But the first cut of rough is five inches long. So it’s like the first cut is maybe three paces wide and then it gets into the fescue. … If you miss the fairway, I feel like you deserve a bad lie.”

If this sounds like a kinder, gentler USGA offering a more benign U.S. Open, don’t believe it.

In five previous editions of this event at Shinnecock, only three players – total! – have broken par. And yes, I get the whole par-is-just-an-abstract-construct argument and I understand that scores shouldn’t be measured by this imaginary checkpoint, but it does at least show us that this venue is really difficult and wider fairways won’t be enough to overcome gusting winds and perplexing green complexes.

Which players are ready to contend on one of the game’s toughest courses? Let’s get right to the selections, starting with a guy having a career year who checks every pertinent box.

U.S. Open Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick (+2000)

What if I told you that the PGA Tour victory leader this season is also fresh off a runner-up finish last week, is a recent U.S. Open champion, and still remains longer than eight other players in the outright market? Is that something you might be interested in?

It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if Fitzpatrick’s price shortens as we inch closer to Thursday’s opening round (it already has after being +2500 on Sunday, but he makes a ton of sense to follow Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau as multiple winners over the past decade.

Strangely enough, that triumph at Brookline remains Fitz’s lone top-10 at this tourney, but that shouldn’t be too much of a concern, considering he’s playing better golf right now than ever before – including at that win four years ago.

For a player who’s also proven that he enjoys events when the winning score is closer to par and finished T-12 here back in 2018, it feels like the stars are aligning for the Englishman to have yet another massive week.

Aggressive Pick: Tyrrell Hatton (+3300)

Let’s take a walk down Narrative Street before turning onto Irony Drive. There’s something called the Nappy Factor in professional golf and for as silly as it might sound, there’s plenty of evidence to back it up. Over the years, there are numerous examples of a player becoming a father for the first time, then winning a tournament shortly thereafter.

Just a few weeks ago, Hatton became the latest to accomplish this, as he and wife Emily welcomed a baby girl, then he triumphed in his next LIV Golf start at Valderrama. As for irony, there would be no more delicious justice than the game’s most combustible player winning at not just a tournament, but on a course which has been known to drive saner men crazy.

Last year, in the midst of finishing T-4 at Oakmont for his best U.S. Open result to date, Hatton attempted to explain to me that he’s actually a perfect match for this tournament, because unlike other players, he’s used to losing his mind in the middle of a round. I’m buying into the logic, I’m buying into the narrative, and I’m absolutely all-in on buying the irony.

U.S. Open Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Cameron Young (+333)

One month ago, it felt like the entire world – myself included – was on Young at the PGA Championship, where his power on a Northeast golf course seemed like a perfect marriage. He didn’t play poorly that week, finishing T-26, but never seriously contended for the title, either, which might keep potential backers from circling back this week.

I’d rather double down, though, especially in the top-five market, as he’s posted top-five results in each of the four majors over the past half-decade. In fact, it might’ve been his T-4 finish at Oakmont which started him down this current path.

A year ago at this time, he’d never won and was ranked outside the top-50 in the world; he now owns three wins and is third in the world, behind only Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. There’s a definite chance that everyone who liked him at Aronimink was just a month away from being right.

Aggressive Pick: Russell Henley (+600)

I’ve often insisted that the idea of a “back-door” top-five or top-10 is ridiculous. I mean, are players who start slow supposed to simply pump the brakes on the weekend, so they don’t accidentally squeeze onto the first page of the leaderboard?

All shots count the same, from Thursday morning through Sunday afternoon; I actually think it’s admirable when a player who’s seemingly out of contention grinds on the weekend for a solid finish. By the same token, I guess I can’t be mad about Henley’s two victories over the past two seasons, each of which were of the “back-door” variety.

At last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, his eagle chip on the 70th hole of the week appeared to be screaming past its intended target, before hitting the stick and finding the bottom of the cup, leading to victory. And a few weeks ago, he was hardly part of the main plot, but closed with three consecutive birdies and added another on the first playoff hole for another win.

What’s the point? Well, even if it might be more impressive to watch him race out to a three-shot 54-hole lead and win by six, his ability to keep grinding down the stretch is an enviable trait and it should similarly work if we’re chasing him in prop markets.

I’m fairly confident that Henley could make the cut on the number and still have a chance to cash top-five tickets two days later, which is a nice feeling to have about a player after you’ve bet him.

U.S. Open Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Picks: Patrick Reed (+350) and Shane Lowry (+500)

Forget what the around-the-green numbers say this year – and before you look ‘em up, I’ll allow that they’re better for Reed than Lowry – if you were to simply watch every player in this week’s field test out their short games at this week’s practice facility, you’d be hard-pressed to find many better than these two. There’s a very good chance that even the best iron players will miss plenty of Shinnecock’s greens, leveling the playing field toward those who are most adept with wedges in their hands.

Reed is currently living in golf purgatory, still a few months from finishing his PGA Tour suspension for playing LIV Golf, but already qualified for next year through his DP World Tour results, a circuit he hasn’t played since early-March. That should allow him singular focus on the majors and makes sense that he’s finished T-12 and T-10 at the first two of ‘em this year.

Lowry, meanwhile, has sort of had a tough time getting out of his own way. The performance has undoubtedly been better than the results – he hasn’t finished better than 22nd in 10 starts since rinsing away the Cognizant Classic – which suggests some positive regression might be coming very soon.

Aggressive Pick: Maverick McNealy (+550)

I suppose in other walks of life, this might be called an educated guess, but that terminology sounds too capricious, so I’ll refer to it as a data-based hunch play instead. In 14 starts this season, McNealy doesn’t have anything better than a 10th-place result, but he also only has two worse than a 32nd.

Perhaps that suggests he makes more sense as a top-20 type of play, but I really like his ball-striking/short-game/putting combo this week. In particular, it’s the second of those two which really has me excited, as McNealy is currently one of only three players inside the PGA Tour’s top-20 in both SG: Around the green and SG: Putting, joining Scheffler and Eric Cole.

As I wrote above in regard to Reed and Lowry, I think the ability to get up and down to save pars is going to have a massive impact on this week’s leaderboard, so I love taking a chance on short-game wizardry hitting a potential ceiling, especially when the tee-to-green performance isn’t much further behind.

U.S. Open Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Cameron Smith (+300)

It was only a month ago when Smith was mired in a drought of six straight missed cuts at majors, beyond even an afterthought during the prognostication process. At Aronimink, though, his recent switch to swing coach Claude Harmon started to pay immediate dividends and his short game suddenly looked like vintage Smith – the guy who won The Open and The Players only a few years ago.

He wound up finishing T-7 and recently followed with another top-five on LIV Golf, all of which only feels like the beginning of something bigger. His driving accuracy – or lack thereof – could very well be a relevant issue this week, but I’ll take a chance on everything else being good enough that he can cash yet another top-20 ticket.

Aggressive Pick: Jackson Koivun (+320)

In golf, the so-called Next Big Thing seemingly comes every few months. If you missed Nick Dunlap, along came Luke Clanton. If you missed Clanton, here’s Ben James. Well, in his final start as an amateur, Koivun will have the figurative bar of expectations raised higher for him than any other up-and-comer since at least Ludvig Aberg.

His future is at least more intriguing than those other names mentioned above, for the reason that while they largely do their damage with world-class power, Koivun might be the best putting prospect since a young Jordan Spieth. His coach at Auburn, Nick Clinard, once told me that in matches with teammates, others will simply walk off the green when Koivun has anything inside 15 feet, because they know he’s automatic.

Professional golf might not come so easy – and so quickly – as some might believe, but in his final start beforehand, without any sort of pressure, there’s no reason to think the best amateur in the world can’t hang with some of the best pros.

U.S. Open Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Brian Harman (+160)

This is one of my favorite plays on the entire board this week, offering the high-floor intersection of tournament history and recent form which we’re seeking. Harman, who was runner-up at Erin Hills in 2017, has cashed top-40 tickets in half of his 10 career U.S. Open starts – and missed by a single stroke on two other occasions.

It’s his recent play, though, which has me even more intrigued. Prior to a missed cut at the Memorial Tournament in his last start, Harman was top-40 in seven of his last eight, thanks to strong iron play and an above-average wedge game and putter. On fast, firm conditions at Shinnecock, his precision should overcome any lack of power and his short game should help him grind out pars.

Considering he’s only three years removed from winning The Open, I don’t hate the 175/1 price if you’re seeking a U.S. Open sleeper pick in the outright market, as well.

Aggressive Pick: Cooper Dossey (+350)

If you’ve come here seeking some -150 top-40 play that will undoubtedly cash, but ranks chalkier than a pool cue, you’re at the wrong place. Anyone can name an elite-level player to finish in the top-25 percent of this week’s field, but I’d rather go after a much bigger number with a name you might not know.

A native of Texas, the 28-year-old Dossey has been one of the best players on the Korn Ferry Tour this year, ranking eighth on the season-long points list – and second among those who haven’t won yet. He’s also inside the top-25 in stats for off the tee, approach and putting, suggesting an all-around game which could keep him somewhere inside the fourth page of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

U.S. Open First-Round Leader Prediction

Picks: Viktor Hovland (+5000) and Jordan Spieth (+6600)

For the uninitiated, my personal strategy for FRL plays – which has yielded four winners/co-winners so far this season – is usually less about Thursday scoring average or pre-tournament preparations and more about identifying potential upside for those I don’t necessarily trust with four-round investments.

I’m not sure there are two players who better exemplify this notion than Hovland and Spieth. I’ll readily admit that I have no idea what to expect from either of these players – not just this week, but any week. What I do know, though, is that they’re both capable of going low in a single round without warning.

Hovland wouldn’t have been on my radar at all, even for an FRL ticket, until he played his best golf of the year in Canada last week, finishing in sole possession of third place, thanks to some much-improved iron play. This is hardly the first time he’s come out of nowhere to find himself near the top of a leaderboard, and there’s no telling where it might lead. I have a tough time getting behind a guy who’s only popped once this season, but I similarly don’t want to completely fade someone who just led the field in approach play. Hence… the always volatile FRL ticket.

Oh, did I say volatile? That sounds like Spieth’s music, as he’s been the ol’ riddle wrapped in an enigma all year. While the Internet memes have shown him hitting shots from behind trees and hanging over cliffs and anywhere but in the middle of the fairway, the stats show he’s one of just over a dozen players who’s gained strokes in each of the four major categories, which tracks toward what he’s been saying – that all aspects of his game are close, but they just haven’t clicked at the same time.

It’s perhaps wishful thinking to believe that will happen for four rounds this week, but it’s entirely possible he can put it all together for one, and as far as FRL tickets are concerned, let’s hope it’s the first one.