US Open Sleeper Picks: 3 Longshots Capable of Top-10 Finish

Last year, J.J. Spaun produced an unthinkable U.S. Open victory as a 150-1 longshot.

Spaun’s win continued the success of betting longshots at the U.S. Open. Before Bryson DeChambeau won at Pinehurst, Wyndham Clark came through at 100-1 at LACC.

The two successes ended a long drought of triple-digit winners at the U.S. Open. Before Clark, Gary Woodland (+6000) produced the highest odds of a U.S. Open winner since 2015.

Below, I’ve outlined three potential sleeper picks based on U.S. Open odds. A win by these players would surprise me, but it would not shock me if they contend.

3 Best U.S. Open Sleeper Picks for 2026

Cameron Smith (+8000) | Top-10 Finish (+600)

I’m approaching the U.S. Open at Shinnecock using the following guidance: Open Championship off the tee with Masters greens.

Smith recorded a strong performance at Aronimink despite a horrific driving record. He lost -0.75 SG: OTT en route to a T-7th, his best finish at the PGA.

Now he gets a (relatively) wide-open driving arena that should mitigate his lack of accuracy off the tee. That allowed him to win the 2022 Open Championship at St. Andrew’s.

Most encouraging about Smith’s 2026 PGA was his approach and around the green play. At +1.34 SG: APP, the Australian ranked fifth for the week. He also finished 18th in SG: ARG.

If the driving improves and Smith continues his iron play, he simultaneously offers a strong putting upside to contend at Shinnecock.

Gary Woodland (+12500) | Top-10 Finish (+800)

Every U.S. Open winner since 2019 has recorded a win in the same year as their U.S. Open victory.

That’s why the price offers some initial surprise on Woodland. Earlier this year, he captured a win at Memorial Park. He also finished T-6th at Colonial two starts ago.

Woodland owns outstanding driving metrics over his last two starts. He cleared +1 SG: OTT in two straight, spiking to +1.77 at Muirfield Village.

The irons and chipping offer a bit more concern. Woodland has lost strokes on approach in two straight, but spiked to +1.25 at Doral.

Most concerning is that he has lost strokes around the green in every start since his win at Memorial Park.

Slight improvements have come lately, though. He averaged -0.12 SG: ARG at Colonial and Muirfield Village after losing at least 0.3 in five straight.

If the ball-striking potential reaches its ceiling, Woodland can, at minimum, outperform his market expectation.

Brian Harman (+17500) | Top-10 Finish (+1100)

Harman offers the opposite profile of Smith, even though they both own Open Championship crowns.

The 39-year-old prioritizes accuracy vs. distance off the tee. Surprisingly, he spiked to +0.71 SG: OTT at Muirfield Village, despite a lack of distance.

A poor iron performance led Harman to a missed cut. However, he finished average or better on approach in eight straight events before that failure.

If you presume Open Championship performances offer a correlation this week, Harman offers strong upside. Here are his last four finishes across the pond: 10-60-1-6.

Of course, Harman has yet to produce a top-10 finish this season. However, he recorded a T-11th at TPC Sawgrass, which also features a high rough penalty.

He also played well at Shinnecock in 2018. A T-36th looks disappointing, but I’m encouraged by two rounds north of +2 SG: TOT.

That year, he ranked sixth in SG: T2G and seventh in SG: Ball Striking. Given those factors, I like Harman’s profile at a lofty price.