Valero Texas Open Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Any tournament which features the likes of Corey Conners as a two-time champion should be considered fairly predictive. In this case, the Valero Texas Open favors excellent iron players whose talents only create further disparity in typical windy conditions, while it usually doesn’t take 25 birdies to win the title.

And it’s hardly just Conners (who isn’t playing this week), either. Recent winners such as Brian Harman, Akshay Bhatia and J.J. Spaun tend to follow a similar profile.

Speaking of trends, there’s a considerable one which is currently building – and one which shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise.

Over the past month, every single winner has been progressing in a very positive direction immediately before their victory.

Recent PGA Tour Winners + Previous Week Finish

Look, as I wrote above, this is hardly a shocker. Players who are in form tend to remain there for a continued period of time. We get that. This pattern, however, is more telling than usual. I’m not sure I have a great explanation as to why these recent winners have all been on the first or second page of the previous week’s leaderboard in relation to what we’re used to seeing.

What I do know is that most of my plays for this week tend to follow these trends, as I’m seeking strong iron players who have been playing well lately. Let’s get right to ‘em.

Valero Texas Open Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Maverick McNealy (+2500)

Well, if there’s a betting line somewhere on Tuesday WDs, I’ve got you covered. For the second time in the past three weeks, one of my outright selections has withdrawn before the tournament even started, as Daniel Berger has apparently chosen to rest up and prepare for the Masters rather than head to San Antonio.

I’ll pivot here to McNealy, who despite being a strong floor play, might just have ceiling potential at this one. In seven starts this season, he’s posted three results inside the top-15, but it’s his T-3 at this tournament last year that really has me excited.

I don’t mind some of the names listed below in the outright market – Alex Noren, Johnny Keefer, even Jordan Spieth – but my first-thought fill-in for Berger is a guy who will surprise nobody if/when he wins his second PGA Tour title.

Aggressive Pick: Austin Smotherman (+6600)

One week ago, the prognostication industry was rocked by Scottie Scheffler’s Tuesday morning withdrawal as the prohibitive favorite in Houston. The world’s No. 1-ranked player had a good reason, of course, as his wife Meredith was having the couple’s second child.

It made much smaller news when Smotherman remained in the field at the Valspar two weeks ago, despite his wife expecting their third child within days. I haven’t seen any updates, but considering he’s in this week’s field, I’m going to guess that everything proceeded as planned and now he’s ready to play some good golf again.

He owns three top-13 results in eight starts this year and while the rest of them are MCs and a WD, I love the idea of playing a longshot in the outright market with a proven high ceiling, as opposed to one with just a high floor. And like Berger, Smotherman has been crushing his irons this season, ranking second in that same ball-striking category, all of which should help him this week. 

Valero Texas Open Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Russell Henley (+300)

There are very few – if any – weeks when I’ll pick Henley to win, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think he’s that good or don’t believe he’s capable of it. The truth is, I think the former Georgia Bulldog is a tremendous player, but there’s a large sample size which shows that his performance often outweighs his result – or in simpler terms, he doesn’t win as much as he should, considering how talented he is.

That’s probably going to sound like a criticism, but I don’t mean it like that, either. Henley has won just five times in 14 seasons as a PGA Tour regular, which feels mild for a guy who currently resides within the world’s top-10.

But here’s the good stuff: He has just a single result outside the top-20 since last spring, which just happens to be the only time he’s lost strokes with his irons, and he finished T-4 the last time he played this event. I can’t bring myself to take Henley as one of the faves in the outright market, but I similarly can’t allow myself to not take him for another high finish. 

Aggressive Pick: Alex Noren (+650)

If you compare the stat profiles of Noren and Henley on the DataGolf website, you’ll notice they look like very similar trapezoidal shapes, showing a lack of distance off the tee, but above-average marks everywhere else.

In fact, Noren has gained strokes with his irons in a very Henley-like 14 straight measured starts and has finishes of T-14 and T-15 in his two previous VTO appearances. His results lately have been good-but-not-great, with four straight between T-12 and T-32.

I don’t mind him at 40/1 in the outright market, but those two wins he had late last year on the DP World Tour are two more than he’s had in his entire PGA Tour career. Instead, I’m more into the idea of maxing out his ceiling in the top-five neighborhood, which is certainly possible.

Valero Texas Open Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Jordan Spieth (+188)

Well, I’m already working on my preview for next week’s Masters, and I’ll let you in on one little early secret: If you don’t like Spieth for a top-10 in Texas this week, then oh boy, you’re definitely not going to like where you see him on next week’s list.

I happen to think Spieth is really close to doing some really good things, but they might not happen until he’s able to keep the big numbers off his scorecard. Even with some occasional double-bogeys, he’s still managed to finish top-12 in three of his last four starts, with iron play that statistically looks Scheffler-like if you didn’t know any better.

He also tends to play this course really well, with five top-12s in the last seven years, including a win and a runner-up. The masses probably believe Spieth isn’t close to his next win, just because he keeps climbing leaderboards and fading away, but the numbers show it’s only a matter of time. I think that time could be this week, though I know he’d rather wait one more week to have his best stuff. 

Aggressive Pick: Ryo Hisatsune (+333)

I’m just going to keep ball-striking my way down this week’s card with another sneaky-good iron player who’s seemingly gotten much better this season. Hisatsune missed the cut in the first event of the season, but hasn’t missed another since and owns four top-15 finishes during that time. Add in a top-five result at this tourney last year and he checks all the boxes we’re seeking.

Valero Texas Open Top-20 Prediction

Picks: Johnny Keefer (+160) and Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+180)

I would’ve lost some money on any rookie other than Keefer being the top first-year player on the FedEx Cup points list at this point of the season, but Yellamaraju is currently inside the top-30 (and Jordan Smith leads Keefer, too).

That said, last year’s Korn Ferry Tour POY might now be hitting his stride after a T-3 in Houston and this week returns to San Antonio, where he moved early in his teen years, attended high school and played on this very course.

As for Yellamaraju, the days of getting this Canadian rookie at a bargain basement price are pretty much over, as the bookmakers have taken notice of the lefty’s back-to-back top-10 finishes. Even so, there’s still plenty of value on a guy who’s running hot and seemingly fits this venue as much as the last couple. I love both for top-20 plays and don’t mind a ladder up to top-10 and perhaps even top-five, hoping to hit at least one of ‘em. 

Valero Texas Open Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Lee Hodges (+140)

With three top-40 results in seven starts this season, Hodges has largely remained under the radar, but I still maintain he’s one of the more underrated players around – a guy with both a higher ceiling and floor than most people realize. I’ve had plenty of top-40 conservative selections this year that were a lot more conservative than Hodges, but he provides some solid value for this price.

Aggressive Pick: Zach Bauchou (+150)

There are plenty of lesser-known players on the VTO leaderboard each year – especially down to the top-40 range – and Bauchou represents a solid player with a big number next to his name in a conservative market. He’s missed the cut in two straight, but does have a trio of top-40s already this season.

Valero Texas Open First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Rickie Fowler (+4000)

Unless he wins this week, Fowler will miss the Masters for a fourth time in the past five years after playing in 10 straight editions of the event. There are plenty of ways to measure success and failure for a high-level veteran pro and failing to make the field at the year’s biggest tournament surely qualifies a player for the latter.

That said, prior to Rickie’s missed cut in Houston last week – when he needed something inside the top-five to get into Augusta – he’d finished top-30 in seven of his previous eight starts and 13 of his last 18.

We tend to measure success based on wins and other top finishes, but Fowler has been showing a high floor for a while now. It would be a feel-good story if he can win for the seventh time and cash that last ticket to the Masters, but I’ll simply take him for a solid start, considering he’s got three openers of 67 or better already this year. 

Aggressive Pick: Tom Hoge (+10000)

One of these days, perhaps I’ll write an entire article about course horses. Not necessarily the players who click every week, but those who tend to click at specific venues more often than not.

Maybe the research wouldn’t bear this out, but it certainly feels like Hoge fits the bill, from his success at Pebble Beach to TPC Sawgrass to San Antonio, where he’s finished T-5 and T-12 the past two years.

I don’t mind him for a four-round selection this week, but with an opening-round 64 and two 65s already this season, it feels like he’s been playing his best golf on Thursdays, which will hopefully continue this week.