The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing will conclude with the Valspar Championship, March 19-22, from the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort just outside Tampa.
While not a PGA Tour signature event, a number of stars are in the field, including Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick and Jordan Spieth.
It will not be a birdie fest by any means, as the winning score over the last 10 editions has only been higher than 12-under three times.
Going into the event, Schauffele has the best odds to win at +1000.
I will be focusing on a number of metrics this week, including Strokes Gained: Approach, Good Drives Gained, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, Par-3 Scoring, Par-5 Scoring and Strokes Gained: Putting.
*odds as of March 17
Valspar Championship Prediction
Xander Schauffele is expected to win the Valspar Championship with a 9.09% implied probability, according to betting markets. Matt Fitzpatrick is next at 6.67%.
Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.
Valspar Championship Best Bets
Jacob Bridgeman Outright Winner (+2000)
There’s already been one two-time winner on the PGA Tour in Chris Gotterup, so why not make it two in his good friend in Bridgeman?
Bridgeman claimed the Genesis Invitational last month and continued his solid play with a T-18 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T-5 at the Players Championship. What was impressive at the Players was that he did so, losing strokes on Strokes Gained: Approach.
He made up for it with his putter, gaining the second-most strokes on the greens in the field. Putting well is imperative this week, and I view the poor iron play last week as an outlier. Bridgeman had positive Strokes Gained: Approach in six straight events prior.
Lastly, Bridgeman has some good course history to fall back on, finishing solo third a year ago.
Xander Schauffele Top-5 Finish (+200)
Schauffele has the best odds in the field to win at +1000, which I considered, but feels too short.
After a slow start to the year, Schauffele certainly is trending up with two top-7 finishes in his last three starts, including a solo third last week at TPC Sawgrass. One of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour, it’s no surprise he’s done well in the past at this event.
Schauffele has played here three times, logging two T-12s and a T-5.
Brooks Koepka Top-20 Finish (+125)
Koepka has cashed this in two straight starts and seems to be getting back into form after making his return to the PGA Tour earlier in the year.
His ball-striking and accuracy have been there; it’s his putter that has let him down. With that said, he’s improved his putting tremendously in his last two events in Florida. It seems he’s more comfortable putting in his home state rather than the West Coast.
In a weaker field than last week, this feels like good value once again.
The BetMGM online sportsbook is the premier destination for weekly PGA Tour odds and more golf betting opportunities throughout the season.
From futures odds for The Masters or U.S. Open to parlays and prop bets, there’s non-stop excitement for everyone. And with BetMGM promos for existing users, sometimes you can lock in a bigger potential payout with a sportsbook Odds Boost or Multi-Sport Parlay Boost.
If you don’t have a sportsbook account, sign up for a new account with a sportsbook welcome offer.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
