2026 WM Phoenix Open: 3 Expert Picks at TPC Scottsdale

Scottie Scheffler will try for a third win at TPC Scottsdale this week in the WM Phoenix Open. 

Current golf odds at BetMGM have Scheffler (+230) as the prohibitive favorite. Next on the board? Cam Young, Si Woo Kim and Xander Schauffele (all +2200). 

Other notables in the field include Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa. Oddsmakers price Koepka, a two-time winner here, at +5000. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Prices are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

PGA Tour Expert Picks: Phoenix Open

Brooks Koepka (+5000) & Top-20 Finish (+200)

The price itself renders Koepka an attractive option in Phoenix. Plus, he seems to be flying under the radar after his Torrey Pines performance. 

Koepka finished T-56th in his return to the PGA Tour. But what drove that inefficient placement was a lackluster putter. 

The nine-time PGA Tour winner lost over 2.4 strokes putting per round at Torrey Pines, including -5.45 in his third round. 

But the tee-to-green play offered encouragement. He gained on approach and around the green in every round at Torrey Pines (South). 

By SG: T2G, Koepka ranked 12th in the field. That helps create a buy-low opportunity in Phoenix, where he has two wins and a T-3rd in 2022. 

Even more encouraging? Koepka gained with the putter in all five starts at TPC Scottsdale. Accordingly, I predict he picks up a third win at the track this week. 

Daniel Berger Top-10 Finish + Ties (+500)

Berger, the runner-up at TPC Scottsdale last year, staggered to a T-56th at the American Express. However, it came on the heels of a T-6th at the Sony.

Despite a lack of distance off the tee, Berger produced many quality finishes at this track. Through 10 starts in Scottsdale, Berger placed T-10th or better four times. 

Only seven players outrank Berger in SG: TOT at TPC Scottsdale. Additionally, he possesses outstanding ball-striking metrics that generally lead to success at this track. 

Over the last 12 months, Berger ranks seventh in SG: Ball Striking. He also places 14th in SG: OTT driver-heavy setups over the same timeframe. 

In Scottsdale, he lost strokes off the tee only twice in 10 starts.

Critically, Berger sees an uptick in birdie rate when he plays from the fairway. Over the last 79 measured rounds, his birdie or better rate rises from 21.9% to 23.4% from the short grass. 

All told, Berger ranks fifth overall in my mixed condition model. Pair that placement with his record here, and I predict he contends for the second straight year. 

Jordan Spieth Top-10 Finish + Ties (+350)

Spieth failed to spike in any one strokes gained stat at the Sony Open, where he finished T-24th. However, he gained for the week in all five major categories. 

Time away likely inflates his market perception at a venue where he previously thrived. In his last three starts, Spieth cracked the top-six in all three visits. 

Only four players – Scheffler, Schauffele, Matsuyama and Koepka – have gained more strokes lifetime at TPC Scottsdale than Spieth. 

In nine visits to this track, Spieth cashed a top-10 ticket six times! 

That record helps drive his eighth-place rating in my model. However, other factors offer encouragement that Spieth outperforms his market rating. 

For example, he ranks 16th in SG: OTT on driver-heavy setups (last 12 months). He also ranks 26th in SG: BS over the same sample. 

Ultimately, his record in Phoenix offers the biggest hint for me. With that in mind, I predict he continues his impressive record at TPC Scottsdale.