WM Phoenix Open Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Personally, I’ve never been a big fan of the without markets.

After all, it’s called gambling for a reason, and I don’t mind taking a gamble that my selection can beat even the best in a given field.

I’ll also acquiesce and admit that’s a stubborn way of approaching things — or maybe I’m finally catching on to the fact that this Scottie Scheffler guy is pretty good.

Over the last couple of years, I’ve often written about what I’ve called the Scheffler Conundrum. You know the drill: It’s almost impossible to bet him at such a short number, but it feels similarly foolish to bet against him because, you know, he usually wins.

It’s enough that it should have us strongly considering the “Without Scottie” market, especially on a week like this, when he owns a ridiculous record.

Prior to last year, Scheffler had finished seventh or better in each of his last four WM Phoenix Open starts, including a pair of victories in 2022 and ’23. On the heels of his American Express victory two weeks ago, it’s tough to envision him not being in the mix once again, which should have us seeking out that alternative market.

Of course, if you want to take him head-on, you have a little – just a little – history on your side, as his T-25 last year remains his worst result since the beginning of the 2025 season.

With that in mind, let’s get to this week’s selections, which don’t include Scottie, but just might have to be played without him getting in the way.

WM Phoenix Open Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Brooks Koepka (+4500)

True story: I had a dream recently that I not only played a PGA Tour event, but somehow got into a playoff with Koepka. We were running out of daylight, though, so the playoff hole was determined in someone’s garage with plastic kids’ clubs and a hole cut into some carpeting. In retrospect, such conditions would be the only way I’d actually stand a chance, but spoiler alert: I still lost.

Most would interpret this dream as getting screwed by the powers-that-be or failing to achieve personal success; I see it as a premonition that Koepka is ready to win again. In all seriousness, I’ve had this week’s tourney picked out for Brooks ever since he was reinstated by the PGA Tour and announced he’d be playing here. Not sure if you – ahem – saw any of his shots last weekend, but his T-56 result wasn’t representative of his tee-to-green game.

Playing for the first time since early-October, I thought he was just fine with the driver and irons; it was the nasty poa annua greens, which he’s never seemed to figure out, which really undid him. A two-time champion in Phoenix with another T-3 to his name, Koepka is the exact combination of power and personality that I want to target at this one. He even suggested as much after the final round at Torrey Pines, saying, “I love the chaos. I think it’s fun. I’m excited to get back out there to a place I’m familiar with, comfortable with and a place I love.”

Last week was the Brooks appetizer, this week is the entrée. I’d expect him to be a popular play, so if you’re buying, buy early, as this price might not be available by the time he tees it up on Thursday.

Aggressive Pick: Sahith Theegala (+4500)

In nearly two full years now of writing this weekly preview for BetMGM, I’m not sure I’ve ever listed the same player for an outright play for three consecutive weeks, but I’m changing that right now.

I listed Theegala in this category at The AmEx and he finished T-8; I listed him here for the Farmers Insurance Open and he finished T-7. After missing a good portion of last year due to injury, it’s clear he’s finding his game once again and I’d be sick to my stomach if I gave up on him as an outright after picking him for a pair of top-10 weeks.

That rings especially true here, as he was the 54-hole leader in both 2022 and ’24, finishing T-3 and T-5, respectively. There’s some truth in that he coulda/shoulda/woulda won each of those – especially in the first of those attempts, when he got a little too aggressive with his tee shot into the driveable 17th hole on Sunday afternoon, and it found the neighboring water hazard.

I’ll be interested to see how he plays when he gets into serious contention once again (neither of those recent top-10s were anywhere near Scottie Scheffler or Justin Rose), but I’ve always been a big fan of his game, and I love the idea of buying the momentum, even if the price is massively shorter than it was a fortnight ago. 

WM Phoenix Open Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Cameron Young (+400)

If you asked golf fans at the beginning of the year to name one player who’s due for a “breakthrough” season, the majority might’ve voted for Young, who looked like a different player after claiming his first career win at the Wyndham Championship last year.

He was a rare bright spot for the U.S. side at the Ryder Cup, and while we can debate what “breakthrough” really means, the seven-time runner-up seems ready to make the leap into another tier this season. His T-22 at the Farmers wasn’t overly celebrated, but on a week when Koepka received compliments for simply making the cut in his season debut, and Xander Schauffele’s first missed cut in 73 starts was excused away for the same reason, a top-25 for Young in his debut should be considered a precursor to the campaign that so many think awaits him this year.

He’s finished T-8 and T-12 in Phoenix over the past two years, and this one should be right up his alley once again. 

Aggressive Pick: Gary Woodland (+2800)

The first three names in this preview felt a little too chalky, even if I did skip over the obvious Scheffler play to get there. There are other players I like more for top-fives, but few with this kind of value, so let’s take a stab on Woodland in this market.

First things first: This is a course history play, not a form play. It’s been a tough start to the season for the Kansan, going MC-72nd-MC, the latter coming at Torrey Pines, where he’s posted a solid record over the years. That might not bode well for this week, but in Phoenix, he’s made the cut in 11-of-16 career starts, with a win in 2018, three top-10s, and five top-25s, including a T-21 last year.

This is hardly a second-mortgage kind of play, but if you want to have some fun with a longshot that’s easy to root for, there’s at least some equity on Woodland to hit this peak. 

WM Phoenix Open Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Pierceson Coody (+400)

I’m really not sure what else I can do to warn you about this guy’s talents. He led the PGA Tour in SG: Off the Tee last season and finished top-20 in his first two starts of this season before adding a T-2 last week at Torrey Pines.

Maybe we’re seeing a potential top-five player in the world blossoming before our very eyes; maybe his ceiling is top-25. That all remains to be seen, but what we can’t deny is that he looks the part of a superstar and he’s worth playing in some respect until he shows otherwise.

Aggressive Pick: Garrick Higgo (+600)

While I’ll admit I’m not fully optimistic about Higgo this season, I’m extremely intrigued because he’s proven to have a massive ceiling when he’s on his game. Last year, he made just 15 starts, winning the Corales Puntacana Championship for his second career victory and posting three other top-fives – all during the fall portion of the schedule.

When it’s not good, though, it can be really poor, as evidenced by results outside the top-30 in more than half of those starts last season. All of that said, the 26-year-old from South Africa via UNLV owns a lot of power off the tee and ranked as one of the PGA Tour’s best putters a year ago.

That’s a combo I want to invest in more often than not, but I’ll still consider him a bit of an enigma until he proves otherwise in some bigger events. 

WM Phoenix Open Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Jordan Spieth (+175)

My mama always said, “Life was like a Jordan Spieth bet. You never know what you’re gonna get.” That’s never been truer than in Phoenix, where Spieth owns six top-10s and nothing else better than 60th in nine career starts. That’s some high-ceiling/low-floor inconsistency, but it’s still a whole lot more good than bad.

I’m not yet ready to go all-in on him, but I could see myself getting there pretty soon. In his lone start so far this season, Spieth finished T-24 and gained strokes in all four major statistical categories. All of that is enough to get me to back him for a very conservative top-20 this week. 

Aggressive Pick: Andrew Novak (+300)

Oddsmakers are pretty sharp, in case you hadn’t heard. Anything you know, they also know – and anything you don’t know, well, they know that, too. As a result, we don’t find too many players who are consistently undervalued, but here in the early part of the season, it feels like Novak is being dealt a little bit of the Rodney Dangerfield no-respect card.

He might not have gotten full credit from the masses for his Zurich Classic win alongside Ben Griffin last year, but he did have three top-fives, five top-10s and 11 top-25s in individual events and has already added a T-7 at the Farmers this season.

The point is, he’s a very consistent dude with a pretty solid floor who makes a lot of sense for finishing position plays, especially if his price is going to remain where it currently stands. 

WM Phoenix Open Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Marco Penge (+110)

Full disclosure: As soon as Penge clinched his PGA Tour card on the DP World Tour last season, I started looking at potential places to slot him on this year’s schedule and this one seemed like the perfect spot.

Also, full disclosure: There hasn’t been an equipment manufacturer change that I’ve hated more in recent memory than Penge leaving Mizuno after his breakthrough season and signing with PXG instead. Nothing against PXG’s clubs, but it’s so frustrating to see a golfer who’s got a good thing going interrupt it for a guaranteed payday.

Quick tangent: Nineteen years ago, I was covering the Sony Open when Paul Goydos contended with a mishmash set of clubs because he hadn’t signed a deal with any singular OEM. As he said at the time, “Those are my tools of ignorance. Those 14 clubs to me are what we do, and if somebody offered me a couple hundred grand to switch equipment, I’m playing for $280 million; that doesn’t make any sense. I want to play with the 14 clubs I think I’m going to have the best chance of competing with and if that ends up costing me money in endorsements, so be it. I feel I have a better chance of making a living playing the game than selling the product.”

That notion should ring even truer these days, considering they’re playing for a lot more than $280 million now. Somewhat predictably, Penge missed the cut in his first PGA Tour start with the new sticks, posting 75-73 last week. I’m sticking with him in the top-40 market for the sole reason that I’ve had him targeted here for a while, but I’ll gladly back off the outright play until further notice. 

Aggressive Pick: Johnny Keefer (+110)

Last year, Johnny Keefer was easily the best player on the Korn Ferry Tour, topping the points list and winning the POY award. As a rookie on the PGA Tour this season, I’ve seen him referred to as simply John Keefer a few too many times – and his results have similarly underwhelmed, with a T-61, T-27 and T-43. Well, this seems easy enough to fix. Let’s all agree to call him Johnny and watch him shoot up the leaderboard like he did throughout last year. I think a title contention is only a matter of when, not if, and while I’m playing it very conservatively with a top-40, I certainly don’t mind going bigger here.

WM Phoenix Open First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Keith Mitchell (+6600)

Quick: Which player led the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average last season? If you said Mitchell… you’re wrong. It was Scottie Scheffler. Duh. Mitchell was fourth on that list, though, cashing a handful of FRL tickets – to the extent where it’s now almost cliché to make a Thursday investment on him.

I’ve held off over the first few events of the year, but I always like looking at final-round ball-striking stats from the previous week to help determine my FRL plays and Mitchell was third off the tee, first in approach and fifth around the greens on Sunday at Torrey, shooting 69 despite a horrid day on the greens.

I’m never confident that he’ll get his putter heated up enough to cash one of the many bets I’ve put on him over the years, but I do trust the single-round play more than the full-tournament play at this point. With a “real” FRL market for the first time in three weeks – meaning no multiple courses being used – it feels like a good time to get back to basics here. 

Aggressive Pick: Zach Bauchou (+17500)

After graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour at 11th on the points list last year, it’s been a nice start to this season for Bauchou, who’s 3-for-3 in making the cut, including a T-13 at The AmEx. The stats aren’t too impressive yet, but there’s no reason to think Bauchou can’t turn into a player of the quality of, say, Austin Eckroat, who was his teammate on a talented Oklahoma State squad.

There isn’t much to suggest he’s about to take off this week, but the number is so egregiously long that in addition to an FRL play, I don’t hate the idea of playing a full Bauchou ladder from top-40 up through top-10 or possibly even top-five, considering you can get a bigger number for him in that market than you can for a guy like Daniel Berger or Min Woo Lee in the outright market.