Wyndham Championship Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

The PGA Tour’s version of a pennant race doesn’t have quite the same theatrics as those of other sports, as most of the biggest names have already qualified for next week’s FedEx Cup playoffs and those who haven’t can blame the past seven months more than anything that might happen this week in Greensboro.

That doesn’t mean the Wyndham Championship means any less to those competing in it, though, as players on the top-70 bubble will be jockeying to get into the FedEx St. Jude Championship field in Memphis, while others are trying to set themselves up for the top-50 or top-30, checkpoints which can be just as relevant moving forward.

In other words, everybody’s got something to play for at this one, with plenty at stake and motivation easy to come by.

And as bettors, we should be just as motivated, knowing this is the final full-field tournament we’ll be able to bet for the next few months.

With that in mind, let’s get right to it, starting with a pair of outrights which should be very familiar to regular readers of this preview.

Wyndham Championship Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Picks: Ben Griffin (+2800) and Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)

In last week’s Rocket Classic preview, I listed Griffin and Matsuyama as my conservative and aggressive outrights, respectively, before each failed for very different reasons. (And to the tweeter who deftly pointed out that the odds didn’t differ much between the two categories, my counter: I’m allowed to bend the rules, considering they’re – wait for it – my rules. Or in less snarky terms, I’m not going to offer up an extremely aggressive outright if I don’t think one is viable.)

Griffin tickets were drawing dead not long after the tournament started, as he parlayed his recent strong play into a missed cut. Matsuyama took himself out of it with the flatstick, which magically returned when it was too late. So, why am I backing each of them again? I’ve written about this phenomenon pretty frequently over the past few years, but it’s worth revisiting here.

We’ve all done this: Bet a specific player, watch the bet lose, then swear him off for the impending future. But the reality is, if there’s a reason why we bet these specific players in the first place – if we did the research, followed the trends, ascertained why we liked them – we probably shouldn’t abandon ship so quickly. All of which leads me back to these two selections.

Griffin’s ball-striking had been very good for two months prior to last week and while it wasn’t quite as strong in Detroit, not all MCs are created equal, as he posted scores of 68-70 to miss the weekend by a single stroke, which is a far cry from shooting a pair of numbers in the high-70s. Now he returns to his home state of North Carolina and a course where he owns three finishes of 11th or better in four career starts. There are times to cut bait after a wager doesn’t work out, but this isn’t one of ‘em.

As for Matsuyama, he ranked 101st in last week’s field with the putter in Round 1 and 143rd in Round 2, before moving up to 28th in Round 3 and finally third in Round 4, when he posted a 6-under 64 to fly up the leaderboard and finish in a respectable share of fifth place, despite never really getting into serious contention. We shouldn’t be naïve enough to think that Hideki has suddenly figured out the flatstick, considering he often wavers between hot and cold with it, but the ball-striking is good enough to win if it’s only lukewarm.

He’s been a bit all-or-nothing at Greensboro in the past, with four top-20s and five MCs, but I don’t mind that when making a play on a player’s ceiling instead of his floor. Here’s hoping this is a classic case of being a week too early on a couple of guys, then trusting the process and seeing it come to fruition the following Sunday afternoon.

Aggressive Pick: Denny McCarthy (+9000)

For anyone with a buddy who doesn’t trust what we’ve learned from strokes gained statistics and still believes the old “drive for show, putt for dough” adage, try countering his argument with a simple question of your own: If that’s true, then how come the player widely considered the best putter on the PGA Tour over the past half-decade still has exactly zero career victories?

Of course, I realize the garbled message of downplaying putting analytics while simultaneously backing McCarthy for a longshot outright bid, but it’s true that if he’d been the best driver or best iron player or best wedge man over this time, he’d likely have a few trophies on the shelf. The fact is, his ball-striking ranking has decreased in each of the last three seasons and this year his putting – which for so long was at least top-five, if not first or second – is a mere 14th, which is obviously still elite, but not enough to overcome worsening tee-to-green numbers. So, why should we back him this week?

Well, first off, this is a compelling price for a player who might not have won, but at least appears capable of winning. Second, this is a place where he’s had some success, posting top-25s in half of his eight career starts. And most importantly, he was trending in the right direction before a poor second round last week in Detroit left him on the wrong side of the cutline.

A share of 14th place at the Travelers Championship and a T-3 at the 3M Open have me cautiously bullish on McCarthy. At 84th on the FedEx Cup points standings, he needs a big week to get into the playoffs. Perhaps that’s enough motivation to see him once again make more putts than anyone else in the field this week, which will hopefully be enough to find the winner’s circle for the first time.

Wyndham Championship Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Ryan Gerard (+550)

Fair warning before we soldier on: I like each of my top-five selections almost as much in the outright market as my outright selections and might even like ‘em more by the time we get to Thursday morning, which doesn’t help provide any clarity on a crowded card, but I’ll at least take a point for transparency. Opening just behind Griffin and Matsuyama at 30/1 in that market, Gerard is a player who makes so much sense this week. There are times when regional plays are overstated, but backing North Carolinians in Greensboro has yielded victories from J.T. Poston, Davis Love III and Webb Simpson in the past two decades, while Cameron Young and Carl Pettersson have ties to the state and Lucas Glover and Kevin Kisner are Carolinians, just to the south.

And that’s only from the list of winners, as plenty of locals and almost-locals have contended for this title over those same years. Gerard owns back-to-back top-10 finishes and his history shows he’s a momentum guy, the type who often bunches his best performances in a row. There’s very little to dislike this week and if you’d prefer to back him only for a win instead of a top-five, well, I not only won’t argue, I’ll probably join you.

Aggressive Pick: Alex Smalley (+1100)

Yup, that’s right: We’re taking this narrative deep with another North Carolina native – in this case, from right here in Greensboro. Look only at Smalley’s recent results, and it appears he’s suffered a dramatic drop-off over the past couple of months. From the Zurich Classic team event at the end of April to the Charles Schwab Challenge at the end of May, he played five events, posting three top-three results and nothing worse than T-17.

Since then, he’s played five more and has nothing better than a 47th-place finish, but we should note the events he’s been playing. They include brutally difficult courses at the Memorial Tournament and U.S. Open, the Travelers Championship against an elite field, and two overseas tourneys in the Genesis Scottish Open and Open Championship.

None of those, perhaps save the Travelers, seem like they’d be in Smalley’s current wheelhouse, so I don’t mind taking a stab this week on him being more a victim of circumstance than simply playing much worse golf. He’s missed the cut in three straight at the Wyndham, but was T-13 here in 2022 and is a much improved player from previous seasons.

Wyndham Championship Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Alex Fitzpatrick (+400)

We know his brother is British and Alex seems to have an accent, but we might need a little more proof that he’s not American, specifically from the Southeast region. After all, he teamed with Matt to win the Zurich Classic, then proceeded to finish top-25 in six of his next seven stateside events, only to return “home” and go MC-71 in two starts across the pond.

This week, the Wake Forest product is – dare I say it? – back in more familiar surroundings and has some intriguing prices across the board. I’d expect him to be a popular play this week, which means don’t wait until Thursday morning if you want to lock in the best number – whether it’s here in the top-10 market or a more aggressive play.

Aggressive Pick: Chris Kirk (+600)

Much as I wrote about Gerard above, Kirk is another player who’s often piled his best results together throughout his career. He hadn’t posted a single top-25 in his first 17 starts of the season until a share of eighth place last week that coulda/shoulda/woulda been even better, if not for a shank and ensuing unplayable that led to double-bogey on the 13th hole Sunday afternoon. He’s very suddenly vaulted himself into the picture, considering he was T-5 here last year.

Wyndham Championship Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Jackson Koivun (-105)

On last week’s “Early Wedge” show for CBS SportsLine, I listed Koivun for a top-20 at plus-money in our Best Bets segment and thought it was a steal. You probably know how this turned out before I even finish the story, but here it is anyway: The 3M Open winner bogeyed two of his final three holes on Sunday afternoon to miss cashing top-20 tickets by – you guessed it – two strokes. I’m either a glutton for punishment or simply following my own advice from the Griffin/Matsuyama section above, but I like the idea of going right back to one of this week’s favorites in this market at a place where he finished in a share of fifth place last year.

And not that he needs the motivation, but Koivun remained at 70th in the FedEx Cup standings after that T-31 result. It’s hard to imagine him being named to the U.S. Presidents Cup team without playing for the final three weeks of the season, so a solid performance here is imperative if he has designs on wearing the red, white and blue next month.

Aggressive Pick: Harris English (+188)

Did I say something about being a glutton for punishment? English for a top-20 has perhaps been the most snakebitten consistent wager of the PGA Tour season, though most of the damage was done early. In his first six starts, he finished T-27, T-22, T-28, T-24, T-22 and T-24. As astute readers might notice, none of those results cashed top-20 tickets. He’s since posted two more top-25s that weren’t top-20s, though in fairness he does also have three legit top-20 finishes, as well.

At Greensboro over the years, it’s been much of the same, as he owns two top-20s in nine starts, with at least four others that can be considered top-20 adjacent. He hasn’t had his best stuff lately, but my theory here is banking on a regression to the mean and if that theory doesn’t work, then let’s call it pure stubbornness which might be able to get us over the line.

Wyndham Championship Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Luke Clanton (market not yet available)

If there’s a cautionary tale to keep us from getting overly bullish on recent young winners Michael Thorbjornsen and Jackson Koivun, it lies in Clanton, who some believed should’ve been named to a U.S. team before he’d even turned pro. At this tourney two years ago, while still an amateur and with a pair of PGA Tour top-10s already that summer, including a runner-up finish at the John Deere Classic, he opened here at 60/1 and was considered a bargain, finishing solo fifth.

This week, he’s more than twice that number, which might have a little something to do with him hitting a few speed bumps on the road to superstardom. Indeed, it’s been a trying year-plus since the 22-year-old turned pro, as evidenced by four missed cuts in his last five starts. The final of those, though, was a T-20 last week in Detroit which featured some solid iron play. I’m not ready to buy all the way back in on Clanton, but if the idea is to buy low and sell high, then I like the idea of getting a piece before it’s too late.

Aggressive Picks: Brandt Snedeker (market not yet available) and Matt Kuchar (market not yet available)

On PGA Tour Radio recently, Colt Knost quoted Gary Woodland as saying there are fewer than 10 full-time members of the PGA Tour who are in their 40s, and while I haven’t fact-checked that exact number, there’s little reason to believe it isn’t at least in the right ballpark. Two of them are Snedeker and Kuchar and while the public might want to jump on yet another Webb Simpson surge this week, I’d rather go with a pair of guys who also own some nice history here.

Sneds won here in 2007 and 2018 and while he hasn’t posted a top-40 in the last five years, the U.S. Presidents Cup captain seems to have a renewed spirit on the course this season, including his first win since that second one in Greensboro. Kuchar doesn’t have quite the same record, but he has cashed top-40 tickets in three of his last four trips to this one, missing by one stroke in the other. At solid plus-money numbers, these guys make a lot of sense in this market.

Wyndham Championship First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Blades Brown (+6600)

Splitting time between two tours this season, the 19-year-old’s Thursday numbers have been incredible no matter where he is. In his last seven starts on the PGA Tour, Brown has a Round 1 scoring average of 67.86 with nothing in the 70s. In his last seven starts on the Korn Ferry Tour, he has a Round 1 scoring average of 66.86 with nothing in the 70s. That’s a whole lot of really good golf in opening rounds without any clunkers. It doesn’t mean he’s going to cash FRL tickets, but it’s a very high floor for a pretty large sample size.

Aggressive Pick: Eric Cole (+6600)

In three previous trips to Greensboro, Cole has a T-7, a T-14 and a T-71, though the last of those was simply the byproduct of a poor third-round 78 a year ago. Other than that, he’s played some solid golf on this course. He also has some equity in the FRL market, with a 63 and two 64s on Thursdays this season, which are the type of numbers which can cash these tickets. I don’t mind him for top-20/40 markets, but I like the option here for a single-round investment.