- Rory McIlroy & Shane Lowry (+350) are predicted to win the Zurich Classic.
- I predict Brice Garnett & Sepp Straka (+3300) contend in New Orleans.
- The case for backing Henrik Norlander & Luke List (+8000).
This week, the PGA Tour descends upon TPC Louisiana for the only team event of the year: the Zurich Classic.
Defending champions Rory McIlroy & Shane Lowry (+350) return to defend as prohibitive favorites. Next on the board are Collin Morikawa & Kurt Kitayama (+1100).
Oddsmakers price eight teams at +2500 or shorter to win the Zurich Classic, which features two rounds of best ball and two rounds of alternate shot.
Below, I’ve outlined two teams I’m targeting based on golf odds from BetMGM.
PGA Tour Expert Picks: Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Sepp Straka & Brice Garnett (+3300)
Make it another week, I’m backing Sepp Straka in some form.
Straka and Garnett paired up at this event last year, ultimately finishing in a tie for 11th. Garnett also played in 2023 with Greyson Sigg, missing the cut on the number.
While Garnett’s underlying metrics look less than encouraging, he offers a few components that could prove beneficial in a team setting.
Over his last 12 rounds, he ranks 15th in good drives gained and 19th in bogey avoidance. Over his last 24 rounds: 14th and 11th in those categories.
He also gained strokes putting in two straight events, which pairs nicely with Straka’s outstanding iron play of late.
Only three players edge Straka in SG: APP over the previous 24 rounds. From an individual modeling standpoint, Straka sits third overall amongst all participants.
Straka arrives in New Orleans off his best approach round of the season (+8.9 at Harbour Town) and has gained at the Par 5s in five of his previous six events.
As a result, I like the price on a team with experience around the course.
Henrik Norlander & Luke List (+8000)
This pair has featured together in each of the previous two Zurich Classics.
After finishing T-23rd in 2023, they improved to T-19th in 2024. However, the latter finish came from a final round 75 in alternate shot.
Much like Straka/Garnett, this team features one player with high potential and one who simply needs to avoid disaster.
List, save for course experience, offers very little in terms of quality metrics. Worth noting: he’s 38th in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 and 46th in Par 5 Efficiency over his last 24 rounds.
The worry with List? He’s lost strokes on approach to the field in 15 straight measured events.
That makes Norlander, who excels with his irons, a logical partner for the past tour winner.
Norlander ranks second in SG: APP and ninth in bogey avoidance over his past 24 rounds. He also sits 20th in SG: TOT over the last 24 rounds and 15th in SG: TOT over his past 12.
As a result, this team likely offers higher win equity than these odds suggest.
Zurich Classic Betting Model
- Good Drives Gained (10%)
- SG: APP (15%)
- Proximity: 200+ Yards (5%)
- Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
- Bogey Avoidance (10%)
- Par 4 Efficiency: 350-400 Yards (10%)
- Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards (10%)
- Par 5 Efficiency (15%)
- SG: Total (15%)
