Zurich Classic Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Two weeks ago at the Masters, I was asked by a Louisiana local for my take on the future of the Zurich Classic in the impending reimagined have-and-have-not PGA Tour schedule which might begin as soon as next year.

My very honest answer is that I have absolutely no idea, but at least the Zurich has a gimmick to separate it from all the other non-elite events.

Perhaps “gimmick” is too gimmicky of a term. What this tournament has is individuality, serving as not just the only team event, but the only one that isn’t 72 holes of medal play.

Consider it the PGA Tour’s answer to your club’s member/guest, with players pairing up to play two rounds of best-ball and two rounds of alternate-shot.

Of course, it can’t be overlooked that if we’re talking scheduling, this one has all the benefits of a two-hour summer vacation on a Tuesday morning.

Following the Masters and a PGA Tour signature event at the RBC Heritage, and preceding two more signatures before the PGA Championship, this one is caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place, if only we substituted that rock for another hard place.

As a result, there are only two dozen of the so-called “haves” who played in last week’s event also teeing it up in this one.

That means greater separation between the stacked two-man teams and everyone else this week, while plenty of value remains on the longshots.

Zurich Classic Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Aaron Rai/Sahith Theegala (+2000)

There’s no real evidence that the “opposites attract” strategy of teaming up is any better or worse than like-minded partners, but conventional wisdom suggests it perhaps helps in the best-ball format (R1/R3) and hinders a bit in alternate shot (R2/R4). All of which means Rai and Theegala might have to do more of their damage on Thursday and Saturday, since they own dissimilar games from a statistical standpoint.

Theegala ranks about 100 spots higher on the driving distance ranking, while Rai is about 100 better in accuracy. That should allow for the former to swing hard and play aggressively, while the latter stays steady and keeps it in the short stuff. They’ll need to borrow from each other a bit in the alt-shot rounds, but I don’t completely subscribe to the theory that a professional golfer will somehow become dumbfounded by playing shots from 15-20 yards farther or shorter than he’s used to.

There’s value in backing a team with two very good players in this format. With signature events in each of the next two weeks before the year’s second major, the talent pool is lighter than in previous years. This is one of the few we should be able to trust. 

Aggressive Pick: Marco Penge/Matt Wallace (+2200)

Beware the players who are essentially on a nothing-to-lose buddies trip this week. There’s a ton of boom-or-bust variance between these two Englishmen, who could either show out or blow out on a moment’s notice.

This one isn’t for the faint of heart, and I wouldn’t trust them for a top-10 type of floor selection, but as I often remind bettors, outright plays without an each-way market are the epitome of the “second place is first loser” trope. We’re trying to touch the ceiling with these picks – especially the aggressive selections – and I think Penge and Wallace can win this if they both have their best stuff this week.

Zurich Classic Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Zach Bauchou/Sam Stevens (+550)

Between the two of ‘em, Bauchou and Stevens have combined to make the cut in 18 of 21 starts this season, though they have a grand total of just two top-10s (both from Stevens). The ironic part, as it pertains to this week, is that it seems like each one could use some help in getting a little push over the finish line at some point.

This could be just what they need, as the Oklahoma State teammates for three years certainly know each other’s games and should have enough chemistry to contend for this title. 

Aggressive Pick: Jimmy Stanger/Danny Walker (+1400)

In football, certain media outlets will publish what’s often referred to as the “Freaks List” – essentially a team of players who look the part simply walking off the bus and into the stadium. We don’t really have a comparative list in professional golf, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t players who fit the bill.

Before his first PGA Tour win last year, I would’ve had Jake Knapp on this list; even prior to three top-13 results in his return to the big leagues this season, I would’ve placed Austin Smotherman in this group. The truth is, there are plenty of players who “look the part,” but two of ‘em just happen to be paired this week, as I’ve watched both Stanger and Walker at times and thought to myself that they both have the appearance of a player with staying power at the highest level.

From Taylor Dickson and Trace Crowe to Martin Trainer and Chad Ramey, there’s always a team or two in the top-five here who started with a big price next to their names. I like taking a chance on Stanger and Walker being that team this week. 

Zurich Classic Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Wyndham Clark/Taylor Moore (+210)

It’s gradually starting to come around for Clark, who followed a T-21 at the Masters with a T-16 at the RBC Heritage this past weekend. The wild part is that he’d gained strokes with the irons in six straight starts, while losing strokes with the putter each time, but at Harbour Town he ranked fourth in putting, but 76^th out of 82 in the approach category.

Perhaps he’ll be able to piece it together with Moore, whose iron play hasn’t been great this season, but can get hot with the putter on any given week.

Aggressive Pick: Rico Hoey/David Lipsky (+300)

Well, if I categorized Rai and Theegala above as “opposites attract,” then Hoey and Lipsky are the damn Odd Couple. That’s statistically speaking, of course, as Hoey owns a rep of being a tremendous ball-striker who often can’t find the bottom of the cup, even with the long putter he started using late last year, while Lipsky is the steady type who hits fairways and greens, but rarely wows anyone with his shot-making ability.

Again, even a decade into this format, the jury is still out on whether disparate types of players can succeed together in this format, but I don’t mind the idea of taking a chance here. 

Zurich Classic Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Tony Finau/Max Greyserman (+138)

This feels like a bit of a mismatched pair – the veteran who’s trying to claw his way back into elite-level status and the up-and-comer who’s hit a bit of a wall in trying to capture his first career victory. I’m a big believer in the intangible of team camaraderie in this format and I’ll wonder aloud whether these two have it.

Assuming they can prove me wrong, I love the chip-on-the-shoulder combined mentality of these two, each of whom could use a good week for a variety of reasons. 

Aggressive Pick: Joel Dahmen/Kevin Streelman (+240)

You know professional golf is skewing too young when it feels like rooting for Streelman, 47, and Dahmen, 38, is like cheering for the ex-stars on Oldtimers’ Day. The reality is that each one still has some game and I think they can be sneaky good in the alternate-shot format, which puts a premium on keeping the ball in play and avoiding the big mistake.

Zurich Classic First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Brooks Koepka/Shane Lowry (+2000)

I’m guessing this will be the most popular play on the board this week – and for good reason. If one elite-level player owns an advantage over one (by top-tier professional standards) average player, then two elite-level players should hold an even bigger advantage over two average players.

If you want to back Koepka and Lowry for a four-round investment, I certainly won’t disapprove, but I’m a bit dissuaded by the aforementioned intangibles. This feels like the creation of a super-team in another sport which has all the talent, but potentially little of the inherent cohesiveness which creates a winning atmosphere.

All of that said, it’s hard to not like them for a hot start in the best-ball format, so I’ll stick with a single-round play here. 

Aggressive Pick: Alex Smalley/Hayden Springer (+3300)

There really isn’t too much to overthink on this one. Smalley ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in R1 scoring average this season. Springer is a guy who can make birdies in bunches, once carding a 59 at the John Deere Classic.

Give ‘em both the green light throughout Thursday’s opener and they might combine for another sub-60 score, which is what it could take to cash FRL tickets this week.

DP World Tour

Yanhan Zhou (+4500)

Offering up a little bonus pick for this week’s Volvo China Open, where Daniel Hillier and Angel Ayora are the favorites, despite just one career DP World Tour victory between them. Last year’s edition of this event was won by countryman Wu Ashun, who’s since dipped to 376^th in the world ranking.

Of the top three players from China, only Wenyi Ding is competing this week, as Haotong Li and Marty Dou are both at the Zurich Classic. All of which leads us to Zhou, who already owns 11 career professional victories at the ripe old age of 17. I honestly have no idea whether Zhou is better than Blades Brown, who’s also competing in the Zurich this week, or Mason Howell, a high schooler who played in the Masters two weeks ago.

What I do know is that he appears to be a phenom in his own right and even if he’s not winning at the highest levels, he’s certainly not scared to beat guys twice his age in pro events. Zhou has finished top-three in each of his last two starts, including a T-3 in his most recent DP World appearance.

He did MC at the Puerto Rico Open last month, where it should be noted Brown was solo third. In a weak field in his home country, though, I like the idea of taking a chance on the uber-talented teen with nothing to lose and a price which might seem massive compared to what we could see in the very near future.