- The Astros are -150 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter
- Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy
- Watch the game on ESPN
The Philadelphia Phillies (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-150) on Sunday, April 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 15-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 15-12 ATS.
Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -160 | O 9 -120 | +125 |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | U 9 +100 | -150 |
Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+14.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+11.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+9.70 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+16.20 Units / 61% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+13.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+11.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+11.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+9.55 Units / 64% ROI)
Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Urquidy | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.10 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.95 Units / 54% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.65 Units / 47% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 12-16 against the Run Line (-8.85 Units / -22.87% ROI).
- 15-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -4.16% ROI
- 12-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.45 Units / -17.69% ROI
- 16-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +3 Units / 9.71% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 15-12 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 4.06% ROI).
- 14-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.75 Units / -14.59% ROI
- 15-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.05 Units / 10.3% ROI
- 11-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.4 Units / -18.09% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (14/97) against Bailey Falter this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% (5/42) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 18 of Bailey Falter’s 106 off-speed pitches out of the zone (17%) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (39/215) against Bailey Falter this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 11th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Urquidy has allowed a slugging percentage of .560 (28 Total Bases / 50 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .309 — second Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of 54% (742/1,372) against Jose Urquidy since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 99th Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has allowed a slugging percentage of .615 (72 Total Bases / 117 ABs) on fastballs away since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .372 — second Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has struck out just 14% (10/69) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 15th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 12th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Phillies are 17-68 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are just 0-5 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Phillies are just 88-7 (.926) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Phillies are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Astros are just 0-9 (.000) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Astros are 106-2 (.981) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Astros are 48-19 (.716) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .652.
The Astros are just 2-58 (.033) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
29% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .527 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Phillies are batting .201 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 362 strikeouts in 2,120 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (963/7,088 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters have 48 extra-base hits out of 167 total hits (just 29%) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Astros hitters have just 742 strikeouts in 4,201 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 27 of 452 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 9 of 209 batters (4%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 5.10 (127.0 IP) on the road this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% over the last 14 days (13 games) — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.05 (817.0 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Chas McCormick (Astros): Back, D10
- Taijuan Walker (Phillies): Forearm, Day-to-Day
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Andrew Bellatti (Phillies): Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
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