- The Phillies are -110 favorites vs the Braves
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Braves starting pitcher: Dylan Dodd
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Philadelphia Phillies (-110) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-110) on Thursday, May 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 23-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 20-29 ATS.
Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | O 9.5 -120 | -110 |
| Braves | +1.5 -175 | U 9.5 +100 | -110 |
Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Braves and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+13.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+13.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+12.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+12.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.95 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+10.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.80 Units / 66% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.35 Units / 40% ROI)
Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Dylan Dodd | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 32 games (+6.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.95 Units / 33% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 49 games (+12.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+12.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 49 games (+3.70 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 32% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 19-30 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -27.23% ROI).
- 23-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -11 Units / -16.06% ROI
- 21-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -11.46% ROI
- 25-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 4.06% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 20-29 against the Run Line (-8.2 Units / -14.55% ROI).
- 30-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 4.87% ROI
- 29-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.45 Units / 15.82% ROI
- 19-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.2 Units / -24.24% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (61/176) when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .150 (3-for-20) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .259 — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 41% (9/22) against Aaron Nola on changeups this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 42 of 1,056 batters (4%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are just 1-15 (.062) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Phillies are 20-79 (.202) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Phillies are just 17-3 (.850) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Phillies are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 11-4 (.733) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Braves are 9-8 (.529) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Braves are 27-21 (.562) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Braves are 14-5 (.737) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
28% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .340 (1,264 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .569 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Braves hitters are slugging .475 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .938 (537 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .747.
The Braves have scored first in 76% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 17 double plays in 329 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 127 of 1,860 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 5.63 (209.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 24% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 17% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have won 58% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.93 (205.2 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
Bet now on Phillies vs Braves and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
