- The Phillies (72-57) are -140 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (60-67)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (9-10), 3.07 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen (9-2), 2.66 ERA
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Philadelphia Phillies (-140) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) on Tuesday, August 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Phillies vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 71-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 73-51 ATS.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | O 7 +105 | -140 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -150 | U 7 -125 | +115 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 52 games (+16.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 47 away games (+15.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+14.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 51 away games (+14.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 41 games (+11.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 44 of his last 88 games (+17.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 59 of his last 88 games (+13.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+11.90 Units / 60% ROI)
- Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+11.30 Units / 23% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 71 of their last 124 games (+14.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 28 away games (+9.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 away games (+6.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 24 away games (+6.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+3.80 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 49 games (+23.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games (+6.55 Units / 120% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 66-61 against the Run Line (+3.55 Units / 2.3% ROI).
- 71-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.45 Units / 2.41% ROI
- 62-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.7 Units / -1.93% ROI
- 59-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.8 Units / -6.3% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 73-51 against the Run Line (+19.5 Units / 12.25% ROI).
- 59-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 0.68% ROI
- 56-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.1 Units / -9.65% ROI
- 63-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.3 Units / 0.22% ROI
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (455/652) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 8.4 (185/22) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.6 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 71% (302/423) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 71% (837/1,183) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 98th Percentile.
Zachary Gallen: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has a strike rate of just 58% when ahead in the count (fourth lowest)– sixth Percentile and 73% when behind in the count this season (eighth highest among qualified SPs)– 87th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (34/182) against Zac Gallen on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .377 (23-for-61) against Zac Gallen on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .329 — 18th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has struck out 46% (12/26) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Phillies are 11-43 (.204) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Phillies are 13-43 (.232) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 33-27 (.550) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Diamondbacks are just 100-30 (.769) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 111-19 (.854) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 30-169 (.151) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .441 against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,413 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Phillies hitters are slugging .523 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Phillies are batting .317 against LHP this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .211 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .200 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 23% of the time after an opposing score this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH since the start of last season (7,039 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (3,113 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH (3,113 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D15
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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