Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 30

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 30, 2022, 9:48 AM
  • The Phillies (72-57) are -140 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (60-67)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (9-10), 3.07 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen (9-2), 2.66 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSAZ

The Philadelphia Phillies (-140) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) on Tuesday, August 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Phillies vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 71-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 73-51 ATS.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +125O 7 +105-140
Diamondbacks +1.5 -150U 7 -125+115

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 52 games (+16.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 47 away games (+15.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+14.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 51 away games (+14.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 41 games (+11.45 Units / 26% ROI)

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 44 of his last 88 games (+17.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 59 of his last 88 games (+13.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+11.90 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+11.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 71 of their last 124 games (+14.95 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 28 away games (+9.35 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 away games (+6.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 24 away games (+6.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+3.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 49 games (+23.95 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.65 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games (+6.55 Units / 120% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 66-61 against the Run Line (+3.55 Units / 2.3% ROI).

  • 71-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.45 Units / 2.41% ROI
  • 62-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.7 Units / -1.93% ROI
  • 59-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.8 Units / -6.3% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 73-51 against the Run Line (+19.5 Units / 12.25% ROI).

  • 59-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 0.68% ROI
  • 56-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.1 Units / -9.65% ROI
  • 63-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.3 Units / 0.22% ROI

Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (455/652) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 8.4 (185/22) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.6 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 71% (302/423) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 71% (837/1,183) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 98th Percentile.

Zachary Gallen: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zac Gallen has a strike rate of just 58% when ahead in the count (fourth lowest)– sixth Percentile and 73% when behind in the count this season (eighth highest among qualified SPs)– 87th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (34/182) against Zac Gallen on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — seventh Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .377 (23-for-61) against Zac Gallen on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .329 — 18th Percentile.

Zac Gallen has struck out 46% (12/26) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Phillies are 11-43 (.204) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Phillies are 13-43 (.232) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 33-27 (.550) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Diamondbacks are just 100-30 (.769) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Diamondbacks are just 111-19 (.854) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 30-169 (.151) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

Phillies hitters are slugging .441 against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,413 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Phillies hitters are slugging .523 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.

The Phillies are batting .317 against LHP this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Diamondbacks hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .211 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .200 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 23% of the time after an opposing score this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH since the start of last season (7,039 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (3,113 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH (3,113 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D15
  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.