- The Phillies are +100 favorites vs the Dodgers
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Gavin Stone
- Watch the game on SportsNet LA
The Philadelphia Phillies (+100) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) on Wednesday, May 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Phillies vs Dodgers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 15-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 15-16 ATS.
Phillies vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +155 | O 9 -115 | +100 |
| Dodgers | +1.5 -190 | U 9 -105 | -120 |
Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+10.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+10.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+8.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+9.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- Max Muncy has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+9.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Trayce Thompson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games at home (+8.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Dodgers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Dodgers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Dodgers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Dodgers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
| Stone | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.15 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+1.65 Units / 12% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 13-18 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -25.23% ROI).
- 15-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -10.72% ROI
- 14-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.5 Units / -13.14% ROI
- 17-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 5.87% ROI
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 15-16 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 1.34% ROI).
- 18-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -7.4% ROI
- 18-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.9 Units / 14.22% ROI
- 12-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -21.57% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has walked 38 of 952 batters (4%) since last season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 69% (660/958) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .108 (37 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .287 — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (12/36) against Aaron Nola this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 14th Percentile.
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Phillies are 17-71 (.193) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .121.
The Phillies are just 0-5 (.000) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Phillies are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are just 0-7 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Dodgers are 128-55 (.699) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Dodgers are 68-30 (.694) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Dodgers are 126-53 (.704) at home since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Dodgers are 6-52 (.103) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
28% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies hitters are slugging .523 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .331 (2,127 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have chased 23% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Dodgers are batting just .198 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Dodgers hitters have a swing rate of just 43% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .774 (2,269 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 12 double plays in 203 opportunities (6%) this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 8% of innings played this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
The Phillies have allowed 1.55 runs per game (48/31) in late innings this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.33.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers have walked 79 of 1,146 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Dodgers have allowed 3.37 runs per game (320/95) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.06 (1554.1 IP) on the road since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
The Dodgers have won 48% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Dodgers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Michael Grove (Dodgers): Groin, D15
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Julio Martinez (Dodgers): Back, D10
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Andrew Bellatti (Phillies): Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
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