- The Phillies are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Philadelphia Phillies (-120) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+100) on Saturday, July 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Phillies vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 52-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 48-49 ATS.
Phillies vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | O 8 +100 | -120 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -120 | +100 |
Phillies vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 58.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.25 Units / 72% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 60% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+13.15 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+11.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 19 games at home (+10.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+10.65 Units / 23% ROI)
Guardians vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Guardians vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Guardians vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Guardians vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Zack Wheeler | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 80 games (+11.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 away games (+11.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 away games (+5.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 96 games (+5.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games at home (+13.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+11.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 55 games (+10.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+6.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+5.60 Units / 14% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 39-58 against the Run Line (-29 Units / -23.28% ROI).
- 52-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -3.65% ROI
- 38-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.9 Units / -14.83% ROI
- 49-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.65 Units / 7.2% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 48-49 against the Run Line (-1.5 Units / -1.22% ROI).
- 48-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.55 Units / -8.51% ROI
- 40-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.7 Units / -17.41% ROI
- 53-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.7 Units / 9.14% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has walked 7 of 232 right-handed batters (3%) this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 95th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has a strikeout rate of 45% (9 SO in 20 PAs) in late innings this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,246/2,905) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .478 (22-for-46) against Zack Wheeler on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .343 — third Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Bibee has allowed a slugging percentage of just .288 (40 Total Bases / 139 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .425 — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .114 (5-for-44) against Tanner Bibee over the last 30 days (4 games) — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .176 (6-for-34) against Tanner Bibee on low fastballs this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .272 — 93rd Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 12% (16/128) against Tanner Bibee when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Phillies are 17-95 (.152) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Phillies are 23-94 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies are 43-25 (.632) after a road win since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Phillies are 21-6 (.778) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .610.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Guardians are 27-85 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians are 11-28 (.282) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Guardians are 29-68 (.299) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Guardians are 18-93 (.162) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have 286 strikeouts in 1,127 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .607 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Phillies hitters have drawn 73 walks in 1,127 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies are batting .174 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 680 strikeouts in 3,677 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,271 strikeouts in 7,157 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,802 strikeouts in 9,840 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 154 of 2,292 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 146 of 2,333 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.79 (229.1 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Guardians pitchers have walked 58 of 873 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
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