- The Phillies are -165 favorites vs the Rockies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Rockies starting pitcher: Kyle Freeland
- Watch the game on SportsNet RM
The Philadelphia Phillies (-165) visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies (+140) on Sunday, May 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in Denver.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Phillies vs Rockies Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 20-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Rockies are 18-22 ATS.
Phillies vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -110 | O 10.5 +100 | -165 |
| Rockies | +1.5 -110 | U 10.5 -120 | +140 |
Phillies vs Rockies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 59.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Rockies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 33 games (+13.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 31 games (+10.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rockies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jurickson Profar has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Kris Bryant has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.50 Units / 53% ROI)
- Ezequiel Tovar has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+8.40 Units / 140% ROI)
- Harold Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.35 Units / 48% ROI)
Rockies vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Rockies vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
Rockies vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Rockies vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -105 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.25 Units / 85% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games (+3.35 Units / 7% ROI)
Rockies Best Bets Today:
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 21 games (+9.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+7.40 Units / 43% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 17-22 against the Run Line (-10.45 Units / -20.1% ROI).
- 20-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.85 Units / -7.06% ROI
- 17-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -13.52% ROI
- 21-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 6.16% ROI
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 18-22 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -14.32% ROI).
- 16-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -5.18% ROI
- 16-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -24.16% ROI
- 24-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.85 Units / 15.86% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (22/131) against Aaron Nola this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 10th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.038 (27 Total Bases / 26 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .591 — second Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed a just .306 SLG versus the heart of the order (tied for ninth best)– 90th Percentile and .500 versus other batters this season (tied for 10th worst among qualified SPs)– 13th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of .581 (18 Total Bases / 31 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .369 — eighth Percentile.
Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 10% (5/51) against Kyle Freeland on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (27/210) against Kyle Freeland in non-two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 56 of Kyle Freeland’s 299 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 19%) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
Kyle Freeland has a strikeout rate of just 10% (3 SO in 30 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Phillies are just 1-14 (.067) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Phillies are 19-73 (.207) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Phillies are 14-74 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .090.
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Rockies are just 28-14 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Rockies are just 42-37 (.532) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Rockies are just 53-27 (.662) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Rockies are just 1-12 (.077) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .529 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Phillies are batting .288 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .343 with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies are batting .282 at home since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Rockies have won just 44% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
The Rockies have an average HR distance of 411.7 feet since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 398.3.
The Rockies are batting .284 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 119 of 1,773 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 15 double plays in 251 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (925 batted balls) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Phillies have allowed 5.95 runs per game (125/21) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.53.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
Rockies pitchers have walked 43 of 347 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Rockies pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rockies pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Rockies pitchers have an ERA of 5.43 (902.0 IP) at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Rockies vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Bouchard (Rockies): Biceps, D60
- Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): Elbow, D15
- Ryan Feltner (Rockies): Skull, D15
- Noah Davis (Rockies): Elbow, D15
- Germán Márquez (Rockies): Elbow, D15
- Brendan Rodgers (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Dinelson Lamet (Rockies): Back, D15
- Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Gilbreath (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
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