- The Yankees are -125 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola, 4.50 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino, 9.34 ERA
- Watch the game on YES
The Philadelphia Phillies (+105) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the New York Yankees (-125) on Wednesday, March 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Tampa.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Phillies vs Yankees Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Phillies are 5-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 6-5 ATS.
Phillies vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -120 | +105 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +145 | U 8 +100 | -125 |
Phillies vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 63.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Yankees and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.05 Units / 203% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 99% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.65 Units / 122% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 61 away games (+24.08 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 away games (+8.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.83 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 128 games (+7.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 80 games at home (+13.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+11.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 61 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 4-8 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -34.84% ROI).
- 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -10.89% ROI
- 9-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.55 Units / 41.26% ROI
- 3-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -51.92% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 6-5 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 2.94% ROI).
- 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -7.65% ROI
- 7-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.45 Units / 19.76% ROI
- 4-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -30.08% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola had a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (582/836) last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola walked 7 of 299 batters (2%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio was 8.0 (241/30) last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.7 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola had a strike rate of 70% (1,132/1,605) against right-handed batters last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 95th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Luwas Severino last season was 380.5 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 397.8
The last hit on a Luis Severino changeup was September 21st, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 18 in ABs ending on his changeup. — Bryan Baker has the longest active streak at 28.
Opponents batted just .114 (23-for-201) against Luis Severino when behind in the count last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .192 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .119 (26-for-218) against Luis Severino with two-strikes last season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 96th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Yankees are 28-4 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Phillies batted .176 on pitches out of the zone last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have drawn 268 walks in 2,113 PA’s (13%) in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Yankees hitters had an OPS of 1.230 (1,113 PA’s) when the pitcher was behind in the count last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.064.
Yankees hitters have drawn 271 walks in 2,878 PA’s (9%) when leading off an inning since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have won 45% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Yankees – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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