- The Blue Jays are -225 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker, 4.50 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on SNET
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) visit TD Ballpark to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-225) on Wednesday, March 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07pm EDT in Dunedin.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-140).
The Pirates vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Pirates are 2-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 8-5 ATS.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 +115 | O 10.5 -115 | +180 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 -140 | U 10.5 -105 | -225 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Wednesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 69.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Bligh Madris has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Chapman has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games (+3.60 Units / 180% ROI)
- Cavan Biggio has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.50 Units / 175% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 36 games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 123 games (+13.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 75 games at home (+12.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 35 games (+7.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 49 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 5-7 against the Run Line (-4.4 Units / -27.41% ROI).
- 2-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -56.92% ROI
- 9-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.9 Units / 52.08% ROI
- 2-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.75 Units / -58.71% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 8-5 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 25.68% ROI).
- 9-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.65 Units / 26.57% ROI
- 7-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 8.93% ROI
- 5-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -18.51% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (655/1,230) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Hitters swung at 54% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (371/693) with two-strikes last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (330/993) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
JT Brubaker has located his fastball up for a strike just 51% (507/993) of the time since the start of the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a chase percentage of 39% (570/1,446) against Kevin Gausman last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted .204 (85-for-416) against Kevin Gausman with two-strikes last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — sixth Percentile.
Hitters swung at 56% of Kevin Gausman’s pitches (1,602/2,878) last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has 98 three-pitch strikeouts since the start of the 2021 season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Pirates are just 58-133 (.304) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Pirates are just 58-87 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Pirates are just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 27-53 (.338) on the road last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Blue Jays are 45-36 (.556) on the road last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Blue Jays are 78-20 (.796) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Blue Jays are 17-14 (.548) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are just 22-30 (.423) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (6,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Blue Jays hitters have put 42% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Blue Jays are batting .261 with two outs since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
The Blue Jays are batting .265 since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Pirates allowed 1.70 runs per game (273/161) in late innings last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers walked 428 of 6,098 batters (7%) last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers walked 92 of 1,455 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 901 of 12,014 batters (7%) since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Toronto Blue Jays – No Injuries Reported
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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