- The Orioles are -165 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Vincent Velasquez, 4.50 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson, 4.50 ERA
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) visit Ed Smith Stadium to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-165) on Wednesday, March 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Sarasota.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Pirates vs Orioles Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Pirates are 2-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 4-5 ATS.
Pirates vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -135 | O 10.5 -105 | +140 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +110 | U 10.5 -115 | -165 |
Pirates vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Wednesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 68.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+0.10 Units / 2% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 16% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 47 away games (+6.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 142 games (+28.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 142 games (+22.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 70 games at home (+5.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 5-3 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 5.43% ROI).
- 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.65 Units / -32.72% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 32.77% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -38.07% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 4-5 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -19.25% ROI).
- 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -25.55% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 27.64% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -35.86% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Vince Velasquez has allowed a slugging percentage of .368 (143 Total Bases / 389 ABs) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .264 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (166/485) against Vince Velasquez since the start of the 2021 season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — fifth Percentile.
Vince Velasquez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.3 MPH since the start of the 2021 season (480 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 88.6
Vince Velasquez has allowed an OPS of .635 (431 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .498 — fourth Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .364 (47-for-129) against Kyle Gibson with runners in scoring position last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (224/679) against Kyle Gibson on elevated fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Gibson allowed a slugging percentage of .550 (71 Total Bases / 129 ABs) with runners in scoring position last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted .381 (32-for-84) against Kyle Gibson over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 52-8 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Pirates are just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 58-87 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Orioles are 69-25 (.734) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Orioles are 61-2 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Orioles are 14-68 (.171) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Orioles are 65-3 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (6,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters had an OPS of just .534 (259 PA’s) against LHP over the last 30 days of the regular season (21 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Orioles hitters have 909 strikeouts in 3,781 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .232 (6,578 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 185 of 2,843 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Baltimore Orioles – No Injuries Reported
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
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