- The Orioles are -155 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+130) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-155) on Friday, May 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Pirates vs Orioles Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 21-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 23-14 ATS.
Pirates vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | O 9 -115 | +130 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +125 | U 9 -105 | -155 |
Pirates vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+7.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.75 Units / 68% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.85 Units / 62% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.25 Units / 78% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 54% ROI)
Orioles vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Orioles vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Orioles vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Orioles vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Johan Oviedo | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in their last 10 games (+10.10 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+7.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+9.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games (+8.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 21-17 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 3.82% ROI).
- 21-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.7 Units / 15.28% ROI
- 18-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -3.83% ROI
- 18-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -3.47% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 23-14 against the Run Line (+8.35 Units / 18.31% ROI).
- 24-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.8 Units / 19.56% ROI
- 20-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 6.78% ROI
- 16-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.8 Units / -14.13% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (29/46) against Johan Oviedo in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has walked 10 of 82 right-handed batters (12%) this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — ninth Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has allowed an OBP of .354 (82 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — 13th Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has thrown off-speed pitches 64% of the time (94/146) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 98th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Division opponents are hitting .338 (93-for-275) against Kyle Bradish since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .246 — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased 33 of Kyle Bradish’s 62 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 53%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has walked 27 of 224 left-handed batters (12%) since last season — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 8% — ninth Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .250 (13 Total Bases / 52 ABs) on low fastballs since last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .428 — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Pirates are just 0-14 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Pirates are just 4-94 (.041) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Pirates are just 0-16 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Pirates are 13-1 (.929) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .689.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Orioles are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Orioles are 6-10 (.375) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Orioles are 77-4 (.951) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Orioles are 24-13 (.649) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .292 (2,275 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Pirates are batting just .148 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .176 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OBP of .352 (528 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 65% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
11% of Orioles’ plate appearances have been three-ball counts (846/7,471 PA’s) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles hitters are slugging .449 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 718 of 7,677 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 10 of 54 batters (18%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 2.58 (97.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .116 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Orioles have have still managed to win 61% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ramón UrÃas (Orioles): Hamstring, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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