Pirates vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 27, 2022, 9:30 AM
  • The Phillies (71-55) are -275 favorites vs the Pirates (47-78)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Tyler Beede (1-3), 4.12 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (8-5), 4.29 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+220) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-275) on Saturday, August 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).

The Pirates vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 46-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 65-59 ATS.

Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+2.5 -130O 9 -105+220
Phillies -2.5 +105U 9 -115-275

Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 68.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+7.95 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Ben Gamel has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+7.60 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+18.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games at home (+16.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 38 games (+14.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+12.35 Units / 41% ROI)

Phillies vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Bradley Zimmer 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Bryce Harper 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Bryson Stott 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +340 0.5 -650

Phillies vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 1.5 +160 1.5 -225
Bradley Zimmer 0.5 -140 0.5 -105
Bryce Harper 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
Bryson Stott 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
J.T. Realmuto 1.5 +180 1.5 -275

Phillies vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Bradley Zimmer 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Bryce Harper 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
Bryson Stott 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +120 0.5 -165

Phillies vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Gibson 4.5 -110 4.5 -130
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.40 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 60 away games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 32 away games (+2.75 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 57 away games (+2.30 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 69 of their last 121 games (+14.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.60 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+5.10 Units / 16% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 61-60 against the Run Line (-6.95 Units / -4.57% ROI).

  • 46-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.3 Units / -6.62% ROI
  • 54-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.65 Units / -8.01% ROI
  • 59-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -0.37% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 65-59 against the Run Line (+4.95 Units / 3.29% ROI).

  • 70-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.75 Units / 4.37% ROI
  • 61-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -0.92% ROI
  • 57-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.8 Units / -7.17% ROI

Tyler Beede has struck out just 12% (14/120) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.

Tyler Beede has a strikeout rate of just 14% (32 SO in 236 PAs) this season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.

Tyler Beede has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 49% (112/227) of the time this season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (56/91) against Tyler Beede this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.

Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 59% when ahead in the count (seventh lowest)– 12th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (sixth highest among qualified SPs)– 91st Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of 23% (20 SO in 88 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 92nd Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .325 (27-for-83) against Kyle Gibson with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — fifth Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has located his fastball up for a strike just 49% (309/629) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Pirates are just 86-23 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Pirates are just 51-122 (.295) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Pirates are just 15-68 (.181) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Pirates are just 32-8 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Phillies are 13-41 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Phillies are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 56-2 (.966) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Pirates are batting just .144 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .279 (1,553 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .464 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .553.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,370 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.

The Phillies are batting .317 against LHP this month (17 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Phillies hitters are slugging .518 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .778 (1,370 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Pirates pitchers have walked 224 of 2,491 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.39 (1121.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,039 of 10,936 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Phillies have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH since the start of last season (6,971 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 23% of the time after an opposing score this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (3,045 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

Phillies vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Brandon Marsh (Phillies): Ankle, D10
  • Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.