- The Rays are -225 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane McClanahan
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+185) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-225) on Wednesday, May 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Pirates vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 20-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 20-10 ATS.
Pirates vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -115 | O 7 +100 | +185 |
| Rays | -1.5 -105 | U 7 -120 | -225 |
Pirates vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Pirates vs Rays and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+10.15 Units / 63% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 14 away games (+9.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+9.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 28 games (+8.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Rays vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Rays vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Rays vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Rays vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -140 |
| Mitch Keller | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -165 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 27 games (+14.55 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+9.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.80 Units / 49% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 30 games (+15.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+9.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.00 Units / 23% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 19-11 against the Run Line (+6.8 Units / 17.41% ROI).
- 20-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.75 Units / 40.32% ROI
- 14-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -3.5% ROI
- 14-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -3.32% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 20-10 against the Run Line (+11.3 Units / 33.24% ROI).
- 24-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.5 Units / 28.11% ROI
- 16-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 11.08% ROI
- 11-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -7 Units / -21.18% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (467/812) since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 18% (7/38) against Mitch Keller on fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (23/96) against Mitch Keller this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has walked 71 of 814 batters (9%) since last season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (109/279) against Shane McClanahan this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 45% (74/166) against Shane McClanahan in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (527/1,499) against Shane McClanahan since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 56% (42/75) against Shane McClanahan on changeups this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Pirates are just 16-40 (.286) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Pirates are just 8-84 (.087) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .121.
The Pirates are just 39-59 (.398) on the road since last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Pirates are 6-4 (.600) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .363.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Rays are 2-5 (.286) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Rays are 15-2 (.882) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Rays are 3-6 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .133.
The Rays are 5-3 (.625) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of .617 (601 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .511.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .178 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .561 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Rays hitters are slugging .367 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .880 (326 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .690.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .912 (649 PA’s) with bases empty this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 689 of 7,370 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rays pitchers have won 70% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Rays pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 478 of 7,028 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shawn Armstrong (Rays): Neck, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Forearm, D15
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
Bet now on Pirates vs Rays and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
