- The – are favorites vs the –
- Pirates starting pitcher: Vincent Velasquez
- Rays starting pitcher: Zachary Eflin
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Pittsburgh Pirates () visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays () on Thursday, May 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Pirates vs Rays Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 20-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 21-10 ATS.
Pirates vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | O | ||
| Rays | U |
Pirates vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+9.15 Units / 53% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.30 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+10.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Harold Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+8.85 Units / 111% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 18 games at home (+8.50 Units / 42% ROI)
Rays vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Rays vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Rays vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Eflin | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -120 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 28 games (+13.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 31 games (+16.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 31 games (+12.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 31 games (+12.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+10.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.00 Units / 25% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 19-12 against the Run Line (+5.6 Units / 13.91% ROI).
- 20-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.75 Units / 36.32% ROI
- 15-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.44% ROI
- 14-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.15 Units / -6.3% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 21-10 against the Run Line (+12.3 Units / 35.14% ROI).
- 25-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.5 Units / 28.77% ROI
- 17-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.65 Units / 13.64% ROI
- 11-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.05 Units / -23.61% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 27% (11/41) against Vince Velasquez this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (29/92) against Vince Velasquez this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — eighth Percentile.
Vince Velasquez has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 18.1 innings pitched — Alexis Diaz has the longest active streak at 20.1.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .091 (2-for-22) against Vince Velasquez — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 — 97th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 41% (59/144) against Zach Eflin this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has a strike rate of 70% (209/297) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has located his fastballs down 56% of the time (58/104) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 99th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 3 of 86 batters (4%) this season — tied for 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Pirates are just 16-41 (.281) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Pirates are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Pirates are just 27-94 (.223) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Pirates are just 0-9 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .141.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Rays are 2-5 (.286) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Rays are 3-6 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Rays are 4-1 (.800) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .299.
The Rays are 7-1 (.875) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .365.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .228 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Pirates hitters are slugging .453 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .568 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Rays hitters are slugging .550 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
The Rays are batting .297 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .900 (531 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 691 of 7,408 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Rays pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 480 of 7,064 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have won 70% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Rays vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shawn Armstrong (Rays): Neck, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Forearm, D15
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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