- The Tigers are -125 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz
- Tigers starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen
- Watch the game on BSDET
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (-125) on Tuesday, May 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Detroit.
The Tigers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Pirates vs Tigers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 22-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 22-17 ATS.
Pirates vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -120 | +105 |
| Tigers | -1.5 +150 | U 9 +100 | -125 |
Pirates vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 74.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.85 Units / 62% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 14 away games (+7.55 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 games at home (+14.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nick Maton has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+10.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.65 Units / 59% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 32% ROI)
Tigers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Tigers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Tigers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Tigers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Ortiz | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
| Michael Lorenzen | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 13 games (+11.20 Units / 78% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 away games (+7.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 38 games (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.20 Units / 61% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 28 games (+12.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 29 games (+9.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 29 games (+3.05 Units / 9% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 22-19 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 1.15% ROI).
- 22-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.7 Units / 12.14% ROI
- 18-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.75 Units / -8.32% ROI
- 20-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 1.22% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 22-17 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 4.07% ROI).
- 18-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.45 Units / 19.05% ROI
- 19-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -4.37% ROI
- 19-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -3.54% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has limited playing time.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 80% (12/15) against Michael Lorenzen over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has a strike rate of 79% (77/98) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has a strikeout rate of just 13% (4 SO in 31 PAs) with two-strikes — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has a first-pitch strike rate of 80% (41/51) over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Pirates are just 0-18 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Pirates are just 29-102 (.221) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Pirates are 11-3 (.786) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Pirates are 21-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Tigers are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Tigers are 17-2 (.895) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Tigers are 9-1 (.900) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .608.
The Tigers are just 11-82 (.118) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .148 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .216 with two outs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Pirates hitters have 574 strikeouts in 2,282 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .292 (2,282 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .279 (5,494 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .612 (5,494 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .440 (3,963 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Tigers hitters have 65 extra-base hits out of 233 total hits (just 28%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 726 of 7,781 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 277 of 3,179 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 58% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% against Tigers pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Tigers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Foot, D60
- Anthony Wingenter (Tigers): Biceps, D15
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Arm, D60
- Kerry Carpenter (Tigers): Shoulder, D10
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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