In Week 13, the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5-1) will be hosting their AFC North rival, the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens lead the division, and they are the top seed in the conference.
NFL betting lines show that the Steelers (+4.5) are the home underdog. Can they cover this week against Baltimore?
Let’s delve deeper into the Steelers’ chances.
The Pittsburgh Steelers at Home in Week 13
The Pittsburgh Steelers will be at home in Week 13 after an abysmal 41-10 loss against the Cincinnati Bengals. They just couldn’t keep up with the Bengals’ offense.
Ben Roethlisberger completed 24 out of 41 passes for 263 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. They totaled a measly 51 rushing yards in the game.
The Bengals had 198 rushing yards against the Steelers, including 165 and two touchdowns from Joe Mixon.
That’s not a good sign for the Steelers this week as Baltimore has the second-best ranked rushing offense in the league.
To get some help, they’ll need to depend on rookie Najee Harris. He carried the ball eight times last week for 23 yards. But, unfortunately, the Steelers were too busy playing catch-up to establish a running game.
However, there is one bright spot for Pittsburgh to have any shot of covering the spread at home this week.
Can the Steelers Open Up Their Passing Game?
Ranked 28th in the league for rushing defense, the Steelers are undoubtedly weak against the run. To keep up, they’ll need to dominate through the air and take advantage of the Ravens’ last place passing defense.
Last week, Baker Mayfield threw for 247 yards and one touchdown against the Ravens, and the Cleveland Browns lost 16-10. That probably had more to do with Baltimore’s ability to contain Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to a combined total of 36 rushing yards.
The Ravens gave up 201 passing yards and two touchdowns to Andy Dalton in their previous matchup. Baltimore beat the Chicago Bears 16-13.
David Montgomery had a decent game for the Bears with 58 yards on 14 carries, but the Ravens kept him out of the end zone on the ground.
To add, the Steelers might also want to take a look at some film from when the Bengals last put up 41 points. It was against the Ravens.
Joe Burrow threw for 416 yards with three touchdowns and one interception in that game. That kind of success through the air opens up the rushing offense. A successful passing attack might be the only way the Steelers can cover the spread this week.
Taking a few early shots downfield should signal to the Ravens that this is a must-win game for the Steelers.
Which Team is Better ATS?
When it comes to winning games as the favored team, the Ravens have been almost perfect as of late. They were favored in their previous seven games, winning five times during that span.
In contrast, Pittsburgh has gone without a win in their last three matchups. Before that, however, they won four games in a row. They were the underdog twice during that streak.
The Steelers are 4-7 ATS, while the Ravens are 5-6. Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS at home. The only time they covered at Heinz Field this season was when they played as the underdog against the Browns.
Pittsburgh won that game, 15-10.
If they can open up their passing game this week against the Ravens, I think there’s a good chance that they can cover the spread. But, if they have a repeat performance from last week, it could get ugly.
The Pittsburgh Steelers Could Light Up the Scoreboard in Week 13
Going back to their Sunday Night Football game in Week 11, the Steelers put up 37 points at the Los Angeles Chargers. They lost by four points, but it was still good enough to cover the spread.
Roethlisberger threw for 273 yards and three touchdowns, leading the Steelers to score 27 points in the fourth quarter.
That kind of accuracy would give Pittsburgh a tremendous advantage over the Ravens this week. So for that reason, I think they have a decent chance to put up a lot of points this week.
What do you think? Can the Pittsburgh Steelers establish their passing game at home against the Baltimore Ravens?
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