When looking at NFL odds, stats can be deceiving. For example, take the Seahawks defense this year. If you only look at total yards allowed, Seattle looks like a team that can’t stop anyone. Once you dig deeper, though, you quickly realize that Seattle’s defense might give up a lot of yards, but they don’t give up a lot of points, as you’ll see below.
Placing a bet on over-unders often serves as an excellent option for bettors. Whether you’re watching a tough defensive battle between divisional opponents or conference games that promise plenty of scoring, over-unders add a new level of excitement to the experience.
Let’s take a look at the top over-under bets for NFL Week 11.
Arizona at Seattle (48.5)
We’ll start with the Seattle Seahawks, a team that’s hit the under often this season. After injuring a finger on his throwing hand, quarterback Russell Wilson returned to the Seahawks starting lineup last week.
The Seahawks lost on the road to the Green Bay Packers, 17-0. It was the first time Wilson got defeated in a shutout game.
In Week 11, Seattle will host the Arizona Cardinals, an NFC West rival. It will be their first matchup of the season. Seattle leads the overall series 22-21-1, and they’ve won four out of their last six meetings. In Week 11, the over-under for the Cardinals vs. Seahawks sits at 48.5, so it’s expected to be a high-scoring game.
But that line offers some potential value for the under.
The Cardinals have been dealing with injuries. Last week, starters Kyler Murray, Chase Edmonds, and DeAndre Hopkins were all sidelined.
The Cardinals lost 34-10 at home to the Carolina Panthers, who were without starting quarterback Sam Darnold.
Last Saturday, Edmonds was placed on IR. As of Tuesday, the team had Murray and Hopkins listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.
Seattle averages 20.1 points a game. Even if they maintain that average, the Cardinals would have to score 30 for the game to hit the over. Even though the Seahawks’ defense has given up the sixth-most yards this season (3,605), they’ve given up the ninth-fewest points per game (20.7) and are fifth in the opponent’s red zone percentage (47.2). So, given Arizona’s health concerns and Seattle’s scoring defense, I like the under for this one.
Colts at Bills (49.5)
Four teams are 6-4 at hitting the over this year. One of them is the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts are on the road this week against the Buffalo Bills. These two teams are among the top four highest-scoring offenses in the AFC. (The Bills own the top spot.)
Buffalo has hit the under in five out of nine games. They’ve averaged 29.8 points in their last five games, while Indianapolis averaged 32 points in their previous five matchups. Currently, the over-under for the Colts vs. Bills rests at 49.5.
I’d take the over for this game.
Eagles at Saints (46.5)
Another over-under with some value appears to be the New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles. Each of these teams will be desperate for a win.
In their previous three matchups, the Eagles averaged just under 33 points per game. The Saints averaged slightly more than 27 points in their last three contests. As the away team, New Orleans is 2-3 at hitting the over. Philadelphia is 2-2 at home for the over-under.
What could push this game past the current line at 46.5?
The Eagles are 0-4 at home. Nick Sirianni is still looking for his first career victory in Philly as head coach.
As for the Saints, they fell to the Tennessee Titans last week, 23-21. This season, the Saints hit the over in two out of three games after a loss. The reverse is true for Philadelphia after a win.
I think this game has the potential to hit the over. The Saints and the Eagles are excellent in the red zone, ranking fifth and sixth in offensive production inside the 20, respectively. The Saints’ ability to pressure the quarterback could become a factor late in the game, but Philadelphia has only given up 16 sacks, putting them in a four-way tie for sixth-best in the league.
Which Over-Unders Will You Bet On?
What do you think? Can the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles hit the over? Do you believe that the Seahawks can stop Arizona from scoring, or will the Cardinals get healthy and put on a show in Seattle? Do you plan on placing bets on over-unders in Week 11?
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