After a tough loss last week against the Miami Dolphins, the Baltimore Ravens dropped one spot in the AFC playoff picture. In Week 11, the Ravens are road favorites against the Chicago Bears.
The latest NFL betting lines value the Ravens at -200 for the money line, with an over-under of 45. So let’s see how many points they can score this week.
Baltimore Ravens: NFL Week 11
According to BetMGM, the Baltimore Ravens are -140 favorites to win their division.
For the season, the Ravens have tallied 25.7 points per game.
In contrast, the Bears have given up almost 25 points per game. Before their bye last week, they were on a four-game losing streak, giving up an average of 31 points per contest.
Baltimore is 1-3 for hitting the over as the away team. Their 22-10 loss in Miami last week was their third consecutive away game in which they hit the under.
After their previous losses, however, the Ravens hit the over both times (by an average margin of almost 16 points). Can they keep that up in Week 11?
That will depend on the Bears’ defense.
Chicago Bears: Is Their Defense Any Good?
The Chicago Bears are ranked 17th in the NFL when it comes to total points allowed. That’s one spot behind the Ravens.
As for stopping the run, the Bears’ defense is ranked 23rd for rushing yards per game. The Ravens are ranked fourth.
For passing yards allowed per game, the Bears are 10th. As for points allowed per game, only the Washington Football Team, Detroit Lions, and Atlanta Falcons rank worse in the NFC.
The Bears are valued at +200 for the money line at home. So, the Ravens have a chance to bounce back after last week.
Can they do it?
Ravens On the Road
The Ravens are 2-2 on the road, while the Bears have the same record at home. Before last week, the Ravens had played four consecutive games at M&T Bank Stadium, going 3-1.
In their first three road games, the Ravens finished with a 2-1 record. (They barely made it past the Detroit Lions with a 19-17 victory in Week 3.) Against the Denver Broncos in Week 4, Lamar Jackson threw for 316 yards and one touchdown.
The Ravens won that matchup, 23-7.
In their four road games, they’ve averaged just under 20 points per game. So how many points will the Baltimore Ravens record in Chicago?
The over 25.5 is about -120 for the Ravens, while the under is -110.
An alternate line for the Ravens to score over 26.5 sits at -105. I like the under 26.5 for the Ravens at -120. Anything below that offers excellent value for bettors as well. (Under 24.5 is even.)
The Ravens Will Need to Be Healthy
After releasing Le’Veon Bell this week, Baltimore will continue giving the bulk of their running load to Latavius Murray. He’d been sidelined against the Dolphins due to a previous ankle injury.
Murray returned to practice on Wednesday, but Lamar Jackson had an illness (unrelated to COVID-19). Jackson has missed practice this season three previous times, and each time his team won, so bettors shouldn’t stress too much about this news.
Is Baltimore a Good Pick for King of the Weekend?
There’s a good chance the Ravens’ woes from last week linger into Chicago. From a scoring perspective, the Dolphins have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and the Ravens don’t seem as explosive on the road.
The Baltimore Ravens only put up 10 points down in Miami. So let’s see if those issues drag into the Midwest in Week 11.
The Ravens are ranked 2nd in rushing yards per game, so they should be able to run the ball against the Bears. I believe that their running game will lead the Ravens to a victory, but will it amount to a high score? I don’t see the Ravens scoring more than 24 points in this matchup. Therefore, I expect to see a 24-14 victory for Baltimore.
What do you think? Can the Ravens bounce back on offense? Stop by BetMGM’s King of the Weekend promo to choose the top six teams with the most points this week. You could be eligible to win $50,000. Sign up for an account to make your first deposit. Then make your selections for Week 11.