The Kansas City Chiefs are one of three teams in the AFC on a multi-game winning streak. With five straight victories, the Chiefs have taken the lead in the AFC West and put themselves in a three-way tie for second place in the conference.
They host the Las Vegas Raiders this week, and current NFL betting lines favor the Chiefs by -8.5.
How many points can they score at home in Week 14?
The Chiefs’ Offense During Their Winning Streak
Against the Raiders, the team they’ll play again this week, the Chiefs offense gained 516 total yards and 29 first downs. Patrick Mahomes threw for 406 yards and five touchdowns, and both Travis Kelce and Darrel Williams had over 100 yards receiving. They went 9 for fifteen on third downs and dominated the time of possession.
The following week, the offense struggled against the Dallas Cowboys, a game that they won 19-9. Mahomes threw for 260 yards and had one interception. Their running game produced 126 yards and scored two touchdowns. Their biggest problem offensively was that they only converted on 33% of their third downs.
Last week against the Denver Broncos, the offense continued to struggle. Mahomes had 184 yards and an interception, making this his second game in a row without a touchdown pass. Kansas City converted 41% of their third downs and lost the time of possession battle. In this game, turnovers were the difference. The Chiefs’ defense forced three turnovers and scored on a 75-yard interception return in the 4th quarter.
While their number of points has gone up, the Chiefs are struggling offensively. Mahomes has only had a QBR of 50 or higher once in their past eight games. For the season, the Chiefs lead the NFL in 3rd down conversions (50.69), but their conversion rate is 46.15% in the past three games.
The Raiders Can’t Keep Their Offense on the Field
The Raiders have given up 27.3 points on average in their last three games. In three of their previous four games, they’ve given up over 30 points.
The Raiders have given up so many points because of their offensive struggles on third down. In their past three games, the Raiders have only converted on 21.43%, and for the season, they’re at 33.81%. This gives opposing offenses more time on the field.
The Raiders are also 25th in time of possession. Las Vegas has a problem with putting together sustained drives.
Kansas City Chiefs: Another Above-Average Game?
Since Week 8, the Chiefs’ defense has been an elite unit. Since Week 8, they’ve allowed 11.2 points per game and allowed an average QBR of 31.7. They’re also first in the NFL in that time frame in opponents’ third-down conversion rate, only allowing teams to convert 25.8% of the time.
This is bad news for the Raiders, who have struggled all year to convert on third downs.
I believe that the Chiefs will shut the Raiders offense down, giving Mahomes and Kansas City’s offense more opportunities to score. For this reason, I think they’re an excellent selection for the King of the Weekend promotion this week.
What do you think? Can the Kansas City Chiefs keep their winning streak alive in Week 14?
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