In Week 14, the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet in a game that will have serious implications on this year’s NFL playoff odds.
This is the first time since 2017 that the Bills and Buccaneers are playing each other. Both of these teams need a win to solidify their position in their conference playoff race. Here’s a look at the Buccaneers’ offense heading into this matchup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Home
Not only are the Bucs looking to extend their perfect 5-0 record at home, but they are also one win away from clinching a playoff spot.
The Buccaneers have averaged 38.4 points at home this season while only giving up an average of 16.8 points.
Both teams go into the Week 14 game with a perfect record against the opposing conference. The Buccaneers have beaten the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, and the Indianapolis Colts to go 3-0. The Bills beat the Washington Football Team and the New Orleans Saints.
With Brady at the helm, the Bucs have the best pass offense in the NFL, averaging 311.1 yards per game. Brady has completed 347 passes for 3771 yards.
Chris Godwin has 82 catches for 949 yards and 5 TDs. He needs four more grabs to equal his previous season-high of 86 in 2019.
Rob Gronkowski has caught only 33 balls but has 6 TDs. A huge factor in the Tampa Bay passing attack is Mike Evans, with 57 catches for 794 yards and 10 TDs.
Leonard Fournette has 152 carries and 665 yards on the ground. Yet, two of Fournette’s nine TDs have come by the pass. Leonard has added 58 receptions for 402 yards to balance a potent Buccaneers attack.
Tampa Bay Scoring
With all the weapons available to Brady, it should be no surprise that the Bucs have a 66.7% efficiency inside the red zone. In addition, the team averages 31.4 points per game, which is first in the NFL.
But this week, Tom Brady goes against the top-ranked defense in the league in total passing yards. The Bills are 7-5 and only give up 16.3 points per game. Buffalo is also 4-2 on the road.
Last week, the Patriots threw only three passes. The extraordinary wind conditions kept both teams from having much success on offense. So instead, New England ran the ball 34 times for 189 yards and a touchdown.
Don’t expect Brady to hand off that often this week. He hasn’t attempted fewer than 34 passes all year, but more touches for Leonard Fournette could mean the difference in this game.
In the Bucs’ low-scoring 19-17 win against the Patriots, Brady went 22 for 43 for 269 yards and zero TDs. In that game, Tampa Bay rushed 30 times for 120 yards and one TD.
Fournette had 92 of those rushing yards on 20 carries. So this game could be similar in scoring, given Buffalo’s top-ranked defense against the pass.
This game will be the first time the Bills have played against Brady in a Buccaneers jersey. All-time, Brady averages 378.6 yards and 24.8 points per game. In the last six matches, the Bills forced at least one turnover and seven total.
The Buccaneers will need kicker Ryan Succop to continue his accuracy rate for this game. Succop is 15 for 18 on field goals and 44 of 47 extra points. He made four out of five field goals at home in that Week 4 win over New England.
Bills vs. Buccaneers (-3.5)
I believe that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win this game, but it will be close. I’m expecting Tampa Bay to try to run the ball, but in the end, it will be Tom Brady’s arm that delivers the victory. This game could come down to the last drive. I like Tampa to win 27-24, making them a decent pick for this week’s King of the Weekend.
Do you believe that these two teams will light up the scoreboard? Sign up for BetMGM’s King of the Weekend and pick the top six scoring offenses for your chance at $50,000.
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