Arsenal vs. Brighton Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Brighton's Joao Pedro celebrates scoring his side's opening goal during the Europa League Group B soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Olympique de Marseille at the Amex stadium in Brighton, England, Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023.
(Ian Walton/AP Photo)
  • Arsenal is predicted to be a -1.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
  • Arsenal have won three of the last four against the Seagulls.
  • I predict Brighton will cover the spread and could win outright.

Matchday 3 of the Premier League season begins with Arsenal hosting Brighton at the Emirates. 

Both teams are perfect through two matches. 

Arsenal moved to 2-0-0 with a 2-0 win at Aston Villa on Matchday 2, while Brighton’s late winner against Manchester United secured all three points. 

Last year, Arsenal finished 2-0 against Brighton with zero concessions. 

Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

Arsenal vs. Brighton Odds, Premier League

  • Arsenal Moneyline: -300
  • Brighton Moneyline: +750
  • Draw Moneyline: +450
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (-120), No (-120)

Arsenal vs. Brighton Prediction: Spread and Moneyline

I predict Brighton will cover the spread (+1.5, -120) and win outright (+750). 

Don’t let Arsenal’s scoreline against Villa fool you: metrics rated Mikel Arteta’s side as the inferior team. 

Arsenal lost the expected goals battle 1.28-0.87 and the psxG battle 1.05 to 0.9, per fotmob.com. 

If Ollie Watkins’ 0.8 psxG chance on 54 minutes isn’t saved, the match likely plays out much differently and Arsenal probably opens a smaller favorite against Brighton. 

Even if that weren’t the case, Brighton matches two historically profitable systems. One suggests a spread bet, with the over recommending a moneyline wager. 

Since 2012, underdogs at +1.5, +2 or +2.5 are 72.8% ATS, assuming three factors:

  • The previous head-to-head result was between -7 and -1
  • The opponent’s previous game margin is between +0 and +3
  • The game was played in August, December, January or May

Since 2022, these underdogs are 28-7-1 ATS. 

In terms of the moneyline system, a lot of the same principles still apply. 

Since 2012, dogs between +203 and +961 in August or November-January are 27.5% SU, assuming three factors:

  • The favorite’s previous game margin is between -3 and +5
  • The previous head-to-head result is between -9 and -1
  • The underdog’s previous game margin is between -1 and +2

Brighton’s implied probability to win outright is only 11.8%, so there’s a healthy margin based on this system. 

Add in Brighton have won at Arsenal not too long ago — a 3-0 win in May 2023 — and I’ll back the Seagulls to win and cover. 

Arsenal Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Aug. 24 at Aston Villa: 2-0, W
  • Aug. 17 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W
  • Aug. 11 vs. Lyon: 2-0, W (Friendly)
  • Aug. 7 vs. Bayer Leverkusen: 4-1, W (Friendly)
  • July 31 vs. Liverpool: 1-2, L (Friendly)

Brighton Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Aug. 24 vs. Manchester United: 2-1, W
  • Aug. 17 at Everton: 3-0, W
  • Aug. 10 vs. Villarreal: 4-0, W (Friendly)
  • Aug. 3 at QPR: 1-0, W (Friendly)
  • July 28 at Tokyo Verdy: 4-2, W (Friendly)

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Arsenal odds and Brighton and Hove Albion odds!

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

First Bet Offer $1,500 FBO
HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
BrightonChelseaFeb. 143 p.m.Amex Stadium
Leicester CityArsenalFeb. 157:30 a.m.King Power Stadium
Aston VillaIpswich TownFeb. 1510 a.m.Villa Park
FulhamNottingham ForestFeb. 1510 a.m.Craven Cottage
Man CityNewcastle UnitedFeb. 1510 a.m.Etihad Stadium
SouthamptonBournemouthFeb. 1510 a.m.St. Mary's Stadium
West Ham UnitedBrentfordFeb. 1510 a.m.London Stadium
Crystal PalaceEvertonFeb. 1512:30 p.m.Selhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesFeb. 169 a.m.Anfield
TottenhamManchester UnitedFeb. 1611:30 a.m.Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Liverpool17-5-15635
Arsenal14-8-25027
Nottingham Forest14-5-54713
Chelsea12-7-54316
Manchester City12-5-74113
Newcastle United12-5-74113
Bournemouth11-7-64013
Aston Villa10-7-737-3
Fulham9-9-6364
Brighton8-10-634-3
Brentford9-4-11310
Crystal Palace7-9-830-2
Manchester United8-5-1129-6
Tottenham8-3-132711
West Ham United7-6-1127-17
Everton6-8-926-5
Wolves5-4-1519-18
Leicester City3-5-1517-28
Ipswich Town3-7-1416-27
Southampton2-3-199-36

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS%Home ATS RecordHome ATS%Road ATS RecordRoad ATS%
Arsenal9-10-547.9%3-6-337.5%6-4-258.3%
Aston Villa8-15-135.4%3-8-129.2%5-7-041.7%
Bournemouth16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Brentford14-8-262.5%8-5-061.5%6-3-263.6%
Brighton & Hove Albion12-11-152.1%4-7-036.4%8-4-165.4%
Chelsea9-13-241.7%4-7-137.5%5-6-145.8%
Crystal Palace13-8-360.4%4-5-345.8%9-3-075.0%
Everton12-9-256.5%6-5-154.2%6-4-159.1%
Fulham14-8-262.5%5-7-041.7%8-2-275.0%
Ipswich Town10-13-143.8%4-9-030.8%6-4-159.1%
Leicester City11-12-147.9%5-7-041.7%6-5-154.2%
Liverpool13-9-158.7%5-5-150.0%8-4-066.7%
Manchester City7-17-029.2%3-8-027.3%4-9-030.8%
Manchester United10-12-245.8%5-7-142.3%5-5-150.0%
Newcastle United13-10-156.3%7-5-058.3%6-5-154.2%
Nottingham Forest16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Southampton9-12-343.8%2-8-122.7%7-4-261.5%
Tottenham Hotspur9-15-037.5%4-8-033.3%5-7-041.7%
West Ham United12-11-152.1%4-7-137.5%8-4-066.7%
Wolverhampton Wanderers10-12-245.8%5-6-145.8%5-6-145.8%
EPL Odds

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.