- Arsenal is predicted to be a -1.5-goal home favorite against Crystal Palace.
- Arsenal has won six straight in all competitions against Crystal Palace.
- My Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace prediction is Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals.
To close out the midweek Premier League action, Arsenal hosts Crystal Palace in a London derby.
The biggest story of Arsenal’s week came in Europe as the Gooners eliminated Real Madrid to reach the Champions League semis. Now, they face two league matches in four days.
Crystal Palace finds itself amidst a struggle. They’ve lost two straight on the bounce while shipping 10 goals across both games. This weekend, they host Bournemouth.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace prediction.
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace: Premier League Odds
- Arsenal Moneyline: -235
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +675
- Draw Moneyline: +360
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-120/-110)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (+110), “No” (-155)
Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal: Prediction
Depending on the lineup Arsenal sends out against Ipswich Town on Sunday, my Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace prediction is Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals (+185).
It’s reasonable to assume Mikel Arteta could rest some starters against Ipswich Town. After all, it’s the second straight road game for a team that played at full strength Wednesday in Madrid.
If normal starters like Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard receive a break over the weekend, it creates a chance to exploit a tired Palace side.
For manager Oliver Glasner, Wednesday’s match marks their fourth over an 11-day period. Plus, the Eagles play a FA Cup semifinal tie on Saturday, their fifth match in 18 days.
Saturday’s match, of the three this week for Palace, offers the most meaning. As a result, it’s reasonable to assume rotation from Palace, which has struggled to defend away from home.
As referenced earlier, Palace allowed five goals to both Manchester City and Newcastle United in their last two matches.
While the metrics rate those outputs slightly lucky – Palace conceded 10 off 6.4 post-shot xG – they still allowed at least 2.4 post-shot xG in both matches.
Earlier this season, Palace struggled to contain Arsenal’s attack at full strength. As home underdogs, Palace conceded five goals off 3.7 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
Before that league match, Arsenal’s attack shipped three against Palace in a League Cup tie at home off 2.7 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
Those matches combined to mark the third straight meeting against Palace in which Arsenal cleared 2.5 goals on their own.
Lastly, history suggests this is a prime spot to expect goals.
Since last season, matches with a total set at 2.5 are 44-21 to the over, assuming both teams have 3-4 days between games.
Of those 65 matches, 34 featured a home favorite with 12 clearing 2.5 goals with 24 clearing 1.5 goals.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | May. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Chelsea | Manchester United | May. 16 | 3:15 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 13-17-6 | 44.4% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-3 | 65.3% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-3 | 40.3% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 18-12-6 | 58.3% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-3 | 43.1% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-4 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 21-14-1 | 59.7% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-14-0 | 61.1% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 13-19-4 | 41.7% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-22-1 | 37.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 18-16-2 | 52.8% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-14-4 | 68 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Aston Villa | 18-9-9 | 63 | 7 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-8-10 | 62 | 12 |
| Brentford | 16-7-13 | 55 | 10 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Fulham | 14-9-13 | 51 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 9-15-12 | 42 | -5 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-16 | 40 | -17 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-17 | 39 | -11 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 4 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-22 | 22 | -42 |
| Leicester City | 5-7-24 | 22 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-6-28 | 12 | -57 |
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