- Arsenal is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against Man United.
- Manchester United has won four of its last five EPL matches as an underdog.
- My Arsenal vs Man United prediction is Under 2.5 Goals (+110).
Matchday 23’s marquee fixture pits Arsenal against Manchester United at the Emirates.Â
Arsenal struggled as a big road favorite against Nottingham Forest. With a chance to go nine points clear at the top, Mikel Arteta’s side drew 0-0 against Forest.Â
Manchester United shocked neighbors Manchester City with a 2-0 home win on Saturday. The win lifted the Red Devils to fifth in the league table, one point out of the top four.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs Man United prediction.Â
Arsenal vs Man United: Premier League Odds
Man United vs Arsenal: Prediction
Based on Manchester United’s defensive success against Man City and Arsenal’s attacking struggles in big matches, my Arsenal vs Man United prediction is Under 2.5 Goals (+110).Â
Caretaker manager Michael Carrick impressed me with his defensive gameplan against City.Â
Albeit at home, United surrendered only 0.45 expected goals and zero big scoring chances. Most impressively, United held its neighbors to only one shot on target.Â
My belief is that success continues on the road. When these teams played on Matchday 1, United delivered a strong defensive performance.Â
Arsenal created only 1.3 xG and 1.21 post-shot xG at Old Trafford. Playing at home should help boost that figure, but Arsenal also has to contend with a United defense that has received extra rest.Â
Carrick’s side played on Saturday and won’t feature again until this match on Sunday. Arsenal also faces a Tuesday trip to Inter Milan in the Champions League.Â
Bettors should simultaneously expect regression from the United attack. The attack created 2.3 xG against City, but it faced a unit ravaged by injury.Â
At home, Arsenal has cumulatively allowed 6.5 expected goals through 11 fixtures. Even against quality attacks, the defense has held up well.Â
Manchester City and Liverpool averaged 0.6 xG per 90 minutes at Arsenal. Neither scored more than once against Arsenal.Â
This season, United closed north of +300 on the road twice and averaged 1.25 xG per 90. However, those fixtures came against comparably inferior defenses.Â
Given those factors, I predict a low-scoring clash between these teams.Â
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