- Arsenal is predicted to be a 1.5-goal home favorite against Newcastle.
- Arsenal has scored at least one goal in 21 of its last 22 EPL home matches.
- My Arsenal vs Newcastle prediction is the Arsenal Spread (-1.5, +125).
Arsenal will try to end a two-match losing streak on Saturday against faltering Newcastle.
Mikel Arteta’s side fell 2-1 at Manchester City on Sunday. Depending on City’s midweek result at Burnley, Arsenal could begin Saturday tied for the league lead.
Newcastle arrives at Saturday’s fixture having lost three straight and eight of the last 11. The skid leaves Eddie Howe’s Newcastle 14th in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs Newcastle prediction.
Arsenal vs Newcastle: Premier League Odds
Newcastle vs Arsenal: Prediction
Based on Newcastle’s inability to defend at the moment and Arsenal’s near-flawless home form, my Arsenal vs Newcastle prediction is the Arsenal Spread (-1.5, +125).
I place more stock in Newcastle’s poor form than Arsenal’s current run. Arteta’s side ran into an in-form Bournemouth side two weeks ago before facing a strong Man City team.
The defensive decline should course correct against Newcastle. Without adjusting for strength of defense, Newcastle created more than 1.5 expected goals twice in its last seven.
Now they’re facing an Arsenal defense that still leads the league in expected goals against. When these teams last met, Newcastle generated only 0.6 xG and 0.9 post-shot xG.
That match saw Newcastle fall 2-1 while running very lucky. Arsenal beat the Magpies 2.04-0.6 on xG and 2.7-0.9 on post-shot xG.
Away from home, Newcastle’s attacking record takes a massive hit. The Magpies created just over one xG per 90 through 16 away days.
Of their 16.7 road xG, 30% came against Burnley and Tottenham.
Meanwhile, the Newcastle defense can’t stop anyone right now. Their season-long xGA average comes in at 1.54 through 33 matches. Over the last 11, however, the average rises to 2.3.
That includes at least 2.7 in three straight against Sunderland, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth.
Arsenal has won 12 of 16 home matches this season, posting a +1.3 xGDiff per 90 at the Emirates. In those 12 matches, they’ve covered this line eight times.
With Newcastle sitting at a -0.37 xGDiff per 90 away from home, I predict Arsenal covers this line at a higher frequency than the odds suggest.
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