Arsenal vs Sunderland Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

After boatracing Leeds United 4-0, Arsenal returns home to face a resurgent Sunderland. 

Mikel Arteta’s side avenged a rare home loss with its convincing performance at Elland Road. Currently, Arsenal leads Manchester City by six points for the Premier League title. 

Sunderland throttled Burnley 3-0 on Monday, extending its home unbeaten run to 12 matches. Now, they’ll try to end a seven-match road winless run as the biggest road dog on the board. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs Sunderland prediction. 

Arsenal vs Sunderland: Premier League Odds

Sunderland vs Arsenal: Prediction

Based on Sunderland’s potential for negative regression and Arsenal’s record at home, my Arsenal vs Sunderland prediction is the Arsenal Goal Line (-1.5, -145). 

Few EPL teams have experienced the amount of luck Sunderland has experienced this season. 

Regis Le Bris’ side arrives at Saturday’s match carrying a +1 goal differential against a -12 expected goal differential, per understat.com. 

In the reverse fixture against Arsenal, Sunderland drew 2-2 at home. However, they posted a -1.13 expected goal differential against the current leaders. 

More concerning is Sunderland’s defensive record away from home. Recently, Sunderland went to Brentford and received a 3-0 beatdown while allowing 3.2 expected goals. 

That performance came against a team ranked fifth in expected goals for the season. This week, Sunderland faces the team that leads the league in that category. 

Finally, it’s a nightmare game state matchup for Sunderland. Here’s how both teams perform at a neutral game state:

• Arsenal: +15.15 expected goal differential, 1.81 xG per 90 vs. 0.72 xGA per 90
• Sunderland: -9.59 xGDiff, 0.82 xG per 90 vs. 1.42 xGA per 90

If Arsenal takes the lead, they receive a massive advantage. At a +1 game state, Arsenal have surrendered only 0.68 xG per 90 while creating over two expected goals in attack. 

Sunderland has rarely played from behind this year (268 minutes at -1, 228 minutes at -2 or higher). When they do, they’re allowing two expected goals per 90 in defense. 

For Sunderland to cover this number, they’ll likely need to score against the best defense in the league. Away from home, they’ve managed the fourth-fewest expected goals in the league. 

Given that oddsmakers price Sunderland at -175 to finish scoreless, I predict the hosts cover the spread for the seventh time in 13 home matches.