Aston Villa vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Unai Emery’s Aston Villa goes for a sixth straight EPL home win against league leaders Arsenal. 

Arsenal cruised to a 2-0 win over Brentford in the midweek. It marked the fourth straight league win at home for the current leaders, which hasn’t dropped all three points yet at the Emirates. 

Villa quickly fell behind 2-0 against Brighton on the road. However, Emery’s squad rapidly erased the deficit to tie the match by halftime, ultimately winning 4-3 at the Amex. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction. 

Aston Villa vs Arsenal: Premier League Odds

Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Prediction

Based on Aston Villa’s extreme attacking luck this season and Arsenal’s stout defensive record, my Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction is Aston Villa Under 0.5 Goals (+138). 

Largely, this prediction stems from the price. Only once has Villa failed to score since Matchday 5, but the run has featured some wild fortune. 

Excluding Wednesday’s trip to Brighton, Villa has scored 15 goals off 11 expected goals. They’ve created even fewer by post-shot xG – only Wolves has created fewer psxG. 

Opposing goalkeepers have allowed Villa to score 4.9 goals over its post-shot xG tally. Only Manchester City has benefited more from opposing keepers. 

On five occasions this season, Villa have scored 0.8 goals over its post-shot expectation. Four of those five saw the attack score a full goal over post-shot expectation. 

Now the attack has to face Arsenal. If there’s a concern to be had, it’s that Arsenal could play without both starting central defenders. 

If that’s the case, I’d like to see this price rise before considering a prediction against Villa. That said, Arsenal’s defense presents the biggest challenge for Villa all season. 

Mikel Arteta’s defense leads the Premier League in both expected goals and post-shot expected goals against, per fbref.com. 

Not since Matchday 3 has Villa played a defense ranked fifth or better in post-shot expected goals allowed. 

At home against Crystal Palace, Villa failed to score off 1.1 expected goals and one post-shot xG. 

That marked the second straight match against a quality defense. At Brentford, Villa’s attack created 1.2 xG and 0.1 post-shot xG. 

Arsenal’s defense has also stood firm against the league’s worst attacks. Entering this fixture, Arsenal has played six games against the nine-worst attacks by post-shot xG. 

None of those attacks generated over 0.4 expected goals. Only one managed to clear 0.7 post-shot expected goals against Arsenal. 

Based on those factors, I predict Villa stays under this benchmark at a higher frequency than the odds suggest.