- Aston Villa is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Nottingham Forest.
- Nottingham Forest is 10-5 ATS away from home this season.
- My Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest prediction is the total over 2.5 goals.
Two sides with European ambitions meet on Saturday at Villa Park with Aston Villa hosting Nottingham Forest.
Prior to the midweek action, Forest sits third in the league table with a six-point advantage over fifth place. In their last EPL fixture, Forest captured a 4-2 win over Ipswich Town.
Villa sit ninth in the league table coming out of the international break, but are only three points from fifth. Earlier this season, Villa fell 2-1 in a trip to Nottingham Forest.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest prediction.
Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest: Premier League Odds
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +100
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +250
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Game Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-165), “No” (+115)
Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction
Based on Nottingham’s eventful road matches and their defensive struggles away from home, my Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest prediction is the Total Over 2.5 Goals (-145).
For whatever reason, Forest’s normally reliable defense has struggled when forced to travel.
At home, the Tricky Trees have surrendered only 13.5 expected goals, the third-best mark in the league. Away from home, they’ve allowed 20.5 xGA, the seventh-best mark.
Sample their last five road matches – Newcastle, Fulham, Ipswich Town, Wolves and Bournemouth – and bettors will find they’ve allowed 1.72 xGA per 90 minutes.
By post-shot xGA, their road average over that five-game sample rises to 2.26, per fbref.com. For the entire season, Forest road matches average 2.57 combined xG.
At home, Villa’s attack takes a massive leap. Only four sides created more xG at home than Villa, who have created more xG than only four sides on the road.
That should boost a Villa attack that created only 0.4 xG at Forest.
But I maintain questions about Villa’s defensive quality. At Forest, they allowed 1.7 xG and 1.9 post-shot xG. They also sit 12th in non-penalty xGA per 90 and post-shot xGA.
Plus, Villa home matches average 2.71 expected goals per 90 minutes this season. Through 15 matches, nine have cleared 2.5 goals, with all but two reaching two goals.
History also likes this match finishing over 2.5 goals.
Since last year, matches with a total set at 2.5 are 37-15 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The road team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.5 and 2.1
- The road team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.2 and 1.5
When Villa finds itself as the home team under that scenario it is 4-0 to over 2.5 goals.
As a result, I like a high-scoring match on Saturday at Villa Park.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Apr. 22 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | Apr. 23 | 3 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-3 | 57.8% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-12-1 | 60.9% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-9 | 59 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-11 | 43 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
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