- Aston Villa is predicted to be a -1.5-goal home favorite against Tottenham.
- Aston Villa has won seven of its last eight EPL matches.
- My Aston Villa vs. Tottenham prediction is to use Villa in a moneyline parlay.
With the Europa League Final on the horizon, Tottenham travels to Aston Villa on Friday.
Ange Postecoglou’s side fell 2-0 at home to Crystal Palace on Sunday. Spurs proved lucky in defeat, losing the post-shot expected goals battle by 3.3 goals.
Villa picked up a 1-0 win over Bournemouth on Saturday and sits just outside the Champions League places. With a win on Friday, Villa could move up to fourth in the league.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Aston Villa vs. Tottenham prediction.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham: Premier League Odds
- Aston Villa Moneyline: -275
- Draw Moneyline: +450
- Tottenham Moneyline: +625
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-130)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-165), “No” (+115)
Tottenham vs Aston Villa: Prediction
Based on Aston Villa’s bad luck at home this season and Tottenham’s lack of motivation, my Aston Villa vs Tottenham prediction is to use Aston Villa (-275) in a parlay.
No reason exists for Tottenham to play anyone of significance in Friday’s match.
Spurs play a Europa League Final a week from Wednesday, with that match the only way they can qualify for next season’s Champions League.
Conversely, Aston Villa desperately need a victory in Friday’s match to keep pace for Champions League qualification via the league.
Villa hasn’t lost at home since Matchday 2 and has won 10 of their first 18 at Villa Park. However, metrics suggest Unai Emery’s side has run a tad unlucky.
Villa own a +12 goal differential compared to a +14 expected goal differential at home this season. In four of seven home draws, Villa won by at least 0.5 expected goals.
Plus, Villa own four home wins on the bounce while scoring at least two or more goals in three of those matches.
Conversely, Tottenham enter Friday’s match a negative regression candidate on the road. With one road match left to play, Spurs own a +1 road differential vs a -3 expected differential.
Strong motivation also exists for Villa in Friday’s match. Earlier this season, Villa fell 4-1 at Tottenham.
However, that match only finished 2.4-1.8 in Tottenham’s favor. Even by post-shot xG, Tottenham’s victory should have come by only 1.8 goals, per fbref.com.
Historically, teams that received a bad loss in the last head-to-head meeting tend to capture wins at a high frequency.
Since 2012, home favorites between -270 and +160 on the consensus line are 80-56 SU, assuming two factors:
- The team’s previous margin in the last head-to-head meeting is -3 or -2
- The team’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +2
When those favorites face a team that closed as a dog in their last game: 42-23 SU, including 3-0 at -240 or higher.
For a pairing, I’ll use the Chelsea Moneyline (-285) to bring the price down to -119.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
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