- Bournemouth is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against Brentford.
- Brentford is unbeaten (W5-D2) in seven league meetings against Bournemouth.
- My Bournemouth vs Brentford prediction is Bournemouth Over 1.5 Goals (-110)
Brentford will continue their run for a European league position as road underdogs to Bournemouth.Â
The Cherries drew 1-1 at home against Sunderland over the weekend. Entering Tuesday’s fixture, Andoni Iraola’s side sits 10th in the league table, four points behind Brentford.Â
Keith Andrews’ Brentford raced out to a 3-0 lead against Burnley over the weekend. After allowing the Clarets to level it at 3-3, Brentford used a late goal to win 4-3.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs Brentford prediction.Â
Bournemouth vs Brentford: Premier League Odds
Brentford vs Bournemouth: Prediction
Based on Brentford’s defensive struggles away from home and Bournemouth’s potential positive regression, my Bournemouth vs Brentford prediction is Bournemouth Over 1.5 Goals (-110).Â
Brentford offers one of the most inconsistent road defensive records in the Premier League.Â
Andrews’ defense has kept three clean sheets in 14 road matches. In the remaining 11 games, the Bees surrendered at least two goals every time.Â
Admittedly, Brentford ran wildly unlucky over the weekend against Burnley. The defense surrendered three goals of 0.8 expected and 1.3 post-shot xG.Â
The issue? Brentford now faces a short week road spot against a superior attack. For the season, Bournemouth ranks seventh in expected goals compared to Burnley’s 20th.Â
When Bournemouth traveled to Brentford this season, the attack ran wildly unlucky. Iraola’s unit found only one tally at the GTech off 2.65 expected goals.Â
In general, Bournemouth has underperformed its underlying metrics this year. The attack has scored 44 times off 47.3 xG through 28 fixtures.Â
That sample includes an underperformance over the weekend. Against Sunderland, Bournemouth scored once off 1.8 xG.Â
Despite that failure against this line, Bournemouth still cleared their team total seven times in 14 matches.Â
Pair that record with Brentford’s road defensive miscues, and I predict the market is currently underrating Bournemouth’s attack.
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