- Bournemouth is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Newcastle.
- Bournemouth finished with a win and a draw against Newcastle last season.
- My prediction for Sunday’s match comes in the team total market.
Off a last-gasp point at Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth welcome Newcastle United to the Vitality Stadium for their home opener.
Both teams experienced positive results on Matchday 1.
Bournemouth used a late goal to draw Forest, while Newcastle, despite playing down a man for most of the match, beat Southampton 1-0.
Last season, Bournemouth produced strong results against Newcastle. They earned a 2-0 win at home and captured a 2-2 draw at Newcastle.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
Bournemouth vs. Newcastle Odds, Premier League
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +195
- Newcastle Moneyline: +115
- Draw Moneyline: +280
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-210), No (+145)
Bournemouth vs. Newcastle Prediction: Team Total
My prediction for Sunday’s match is the Bournemouth Team Total Over 1.5 (+110).
However, it’s strictly a lean for me as I’m using this match as a fact-gathering mission.
The question this match will answer is whether Newcastle’s defensive record is more driven by midfielder Joelinton or their central defenders: Sven Botman and Fabian Schar.
Last year, Bournemouth’s attack ran rampant against Newcastle.
Manager Andoni Iraola’s side cleared this number in both meetings while creating 2.75 post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes.
At home — with Newcastle playing Joelinton out of position — they created 2.87 psxG against a Newcastle team playing on short rest.
In the road fixture — Newcastle played both Schar and Botman in defense without Joelinton — Bournemouth created 2.62 psxG.
Botman remains out injured for an extended period and Schar is suspended after his Matchday 1 red card.
That’s going to leave manager Eddie Howe with Emil Krafth, Lloyd Kelly and Dan Burn as his central defender choices.
That trio of choices doesn’t inspire much confidence for me.
Joelinton’s positional change from the reverse fixture at Bournemouth last year could improve their defensive output, but I still like the Bournemouth attack.
However, there are too many unknowns for me to justify a wager at what I consider a short price.
Bournemouth Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 17 at Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D
- Aug. 10 vs. Girona: 3-2, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 4 vs. Rayo Vallecano: 1–0, W (Friendly)
- July 24 at Arsenal: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- July 20 at Wrexham: 1-1, D (Friendly)
Newcastle Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 17 vs. Southampton: 1-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Brest: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 9 vs. Girona: 4-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Yokohama Marinos: 0-2, L (Friendly)
- July 31 at Urawa Red Diamonds: 4-1, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Bournemouth odds and Newcastle United odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | May. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Chelsea | Manchester United | May. 16 | 3:15 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-14-4 | 68 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Aston Villa | 18-9-9 | 63 | 7 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-8-10 | 62 | 12 |
| Brentford | 16-7-13 | 55 | 10 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Fulham | 14-9-13 | 51 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 9-15-12 | 42 | -5 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-16 | 40 | -17 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-17 | 39 | -11 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 4 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-22 | 22 | -42 |
| Leicester City | 5-7-24 | 22 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-6-28 | 12 | -57 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 13-17-6 | 44.4% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-3 | 65.3% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-3 | 40.3% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 18-12-6 | 58.3% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-3 | 43.1% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-4 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 21-14-1 | 59.7% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-14-0 | 61.1% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 13-19-4 | 41.7% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-22-1 | 37.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 18-16-2 | 52.8% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
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