Brentford vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

League leaders Arsenal close out a midweek EPL slate with a London derby against Brentford. 

Mikel Arteta’s side claimed all three points in a 3-0 win over Sunderland on Saturday. With Man City winning at Liverpool on Sunday, Arsenal holds a six-point advantage atop the table. 

Brentford used a late goal to win 3-2 at Newcastle last weekend. The win gave Brentford a second straight outright victory after a two-match losing skid. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Brentford vs Arsenal prediction. 

Brentford vs Arsenal: Premier League Odds

Arsenal vs Brentford: Prediction

Assuming Martin Odegaard returns to the Arsenal lineup on Thursday, my Brentford vs Arsenal prediction is Arsenal Over 1.5 Goals (-135). 

Arsenal needed a stoppage-time tally to clear this number against Brentford at home. While it’s concerning laying this much juice, I remain concerned about Brentford’s defense. 

The Bees have conceded 34 goals against 36.4 expected goals this season. At home, it’s 12 goals allowed compared to 16.2 expected goals, per understat.com. 

Generally, Brentford’s successful defensive performances at home have come against bad attacks. 

The Bees have played three straight at home against bottom-five attacks. However, two of those attacks managed over 1.3 xG, although one achieved it via a penalty kick. 

Before that three-game stretch, Brentford allowed over two xG to Bournemouth and 1.6 to Leeds United. 

Away from home, Arsenal has failed to score only twice. Once came at Liverpool with the other coming at Nottingham Forest. 

However, the league leaders have underperformed their metrics. Entering Thursday’s match, Arsenal scored 49 goals off 50.5 expected, including 18 off 23.4 away from home. 

In Arsenal’s last road match, the team scored four goals off 3.5 xG at Leeds. Currently, Leeds places a spot ahead of Brentford in cumulative expected goals allowed this season. 

This season, Brentford has closed north of +300 three times at home. In those matches, they kept zero clean sheets and allowed multiple goals twice. 

If Arsenal get Odegaard, their chief creator, back for Thursday’s match, I predict Brentford experiences some negative defensive regression.