- Brentford is predicted to be a +0.5-goal home underdog against Chelsea.
- Brentford has earned points in four of the previous five against Chelsea.
- My Brentford vs. Chelsea prediction is the pregame total over 3.5 goals.
Chelsea faces a second straight London derby on Sunday with a trip to face Brentford.
The Blues cap off the midweek slate with a Thursday meeting against Tottenham. With a win, Chelsea stay in the Champions League spots and claim their third win in the last four.
Brentford’s midweek match pits the Bees against Newcastle United. A win for Brentford would mark their sixth straight win away from home and second straight victory overall.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Brentford vs. Chelsea prediction.
Brentford vs. Chelsea: Premier League Odds
- Brentford Moneyline: +210
- Chelsea Moneyline: +110
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Game Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-220), “No” (+150)
Brentford vs. Chelsea Prediction
Based on Chelsea’s high-scoring road fixtures and Brentford’s defensive struggles against strong attacks, my Brentford vs. Chelsea prediction is Over 3.5 Goals (+120).
Only two of Brentford’s previous seven at home have cleared this number, but it’s not surprising when those games happened.
A 2-2 draw against Manchester City and 3-1 loss to Arsenal qualify as the two successes. Both saw Brentford close as a home underdog.
Although they played to a 2-0 home loss against Liverpool in that same designation, that match featured north of four expected goals.
Across all three fixtures, Brentford and their opponents combined for 11 expected goals and 9.9 post-shot xG, per fbref.com.
But Chelsea’s defense registers closest to Man City’s in overall quality. Entering the midweek, Chelsea sits level with Man City in xGA and a spot ahead in post-shot xGA.
Against City, Brentford generated at least 1.5 post-shot xG in both meetings. Earlier this season, Brentford created 1.6 xG and 1.8 post-shot xG at Chelsea.
But Brentford’s defense has struggled against quality attacks.
In seven fixtures against teams fourth or better in post-shot xG, Brentford surrendered 2.37 xGA per 90 minutes. All but one of those opponents scored at least twice.
But the Bees attack has thrived in those matches. Excluding fixtures against Liverpool – the league leaders in xGA – Brentford created 1.48 xG per 90 and 1.88 post-shot xG per 90.
Finally, history likes this match to clear 3.5 goals.
Since last season, matches featuring a total set at 3.5 are 31-12 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The road team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.5 and 2.1
- The road team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.2 and 1.5
Pair those trends with the short week and I like a high-scoring fixture on Sunday.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Brentford | May. 1 | 2:30 p.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Wolves | May. 2 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | May. 3 | 7:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Everton | Ipswich Town | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Leicester City | Southampton | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Arsenal | Bournemouth | May. 3 | 12:30 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | Manchester United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Brighton | Newcastle United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| West Ham | Tottenham | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | May. 4 | 11:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | May. 5 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-14-2 | 55.9% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 18-15-1 | 54.4% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-3 | 39.7% | 6-9-2 | 41.2% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-6 | 58.8% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-19-2 | 41.2% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Leicester City | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-16-2 | 50.0% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-16-4 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% |
| Newcastle United | 20-13-1 | 60.3% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-4 | 41.2% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-21-1 | 36.8% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-2 | 52.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-13-3 | 57.4% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-2 | 82 | 48 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Newcastle United | 19-5-10 | 62 | 21 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Chelsea | 17-9-8 | 60 | 19 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Fulham | 14-9-11 | 51 | 4 |
| Brighton | 13-13-8 | 51 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | 13-11-10 | 50 | 12 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-17 | 41 | -10 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-15 | 39 | -8 |
| Everton | 8-14-12 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-19 | 37 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-9-16 | 36 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-21 | 21 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-24 | 18 | -49 |
| Southampton | 2-5-27 | 11 | -55 |
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