- Brentford is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
- Crystal Palace earned 3-1 win in last meeting and is unbeaten in six vs. Brentford.
- I predict Crystal Palace will either win or draw on Sunday.
It’s a London derby to begin Sunday’s Premier League slate as Brentford welcomes Crystal Palace.
Palace enter this season off an excellent run. To end last season, the Eagles captured six wins in seven matches.
In the hopes of extending that winning run, manager Oliver Glasner’s side takes on Brentford, who are 0-5-1 (W-D-L) in their last six against Palace.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
Brentford vs. Crystal Palace Odds, Premier League
- Brentford Moneyline: +145
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +185
- Draw Moneyline: +240
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-135/+100)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-160), No (+115)
Brentford vs. Crystal Palace Prediction: Spread
My prediction for Sunday’s match is Crystal Palace Draw, No Bet (+100). However, I’m going to wait for lineups before making this wager.
Two personnel decisions on each side will drive this bet.
For Brentford, I’m interested in whether Rico Henry and Aaron Hickey start defensively.
As for Palace, I’m interested in whether they sell attacker Eberechi Eze and/or defender Marc Guehi before Sunday’s match.
History suggests Palace, who earned a 3-1 win in the last meeting, find themselves in a profitable position.
Since 2012-13, visiting teams in games 1-6 priced between -150 and +310 are 85-87 SU and 98-48.5-25.5 ATS, assuming they produced between a +0 and +2 differential in the last meeting.
Just underdogs: 37-53 SU and 51.5-20-18.5 ATS, including 14-15 SU and 23-6 ATS at +0.5.
Observers of the most recent game might say “but Brentford didn’t have Ivan Toney!”
But Brentford see their biggest dropoff in results without Henry.
The Bees have played 76 top-flight matches with Henry. They’ve earned points 67.1% of the time and won the match 35.5% of the time.
In 38 matches without their left-wing back, they see their win percentage drop by 6.6% and their points percentage drop by 22.4%.
That’s by far the biggest results dropoff amongst Henry, Hickey (-2.6% win, -10.1% result) and Toney (+7.4% win, +2.3% results).
As a result, I’ll take the plus money with the visitors to do no worse than a point.
Brentford Record, Last 4 Matches
- Aug. 9 vs. Wolfsburg: 4-4, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Watford: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- July 25 at Benfica: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- July 20 at Wimbledon: 5-2, W (Friendly)
Crystal Palace Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 11 vs. Nantes: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 vs. West Ham: 3-1, W (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Wolves: 3-1, W (Friendly)
- July 27 at Crawley: 6-3, W (Friendly)
- July 19 vs. Charlton: 1-1, D (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Brentford odds and Crystal Palace odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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