- Brentford is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Southampton.
- Brentford has won three straight meetings against Southampton.
- I predict the likeliest outcome is a Brentford victory.
Brentford will look to capture their second home win of the season on Saturday as they welcome Southampton to London.
Both teams enter this match off Matchday 2 defeats. Southampton fell 1-0 as home favorites to Nottingham Forest, while Brentford lost 2-0 at Liverpool.
The good news for Brentford? They’ve historically dominated this series, winning three straight meetings.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture.
Brentford vs. Southampton Odds, Premier League
- Brentford Moneyline: -135
- Southampton Moneyline: +340
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-155/+110)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-155), No (+110)
Brentford vs. Southampton Prediction: Game Spread
If forced to make a prediction, I would back the Brentford moneyline (-135). However, it’s strictly a lean for me as this feels like a trap.
I can make a case for both sides but with caveats attached to each that lead me to other bets on the board.
The case for Brentford is stronger.
The Bees have historically dominated Southampton. Over the last three meetings, Thomas Frank’s team owns a +8 goal differential and a +6.86 expected goal differential.
There’s also a historically profitable system supporting a bet on the hosts.
Since 2012, favorites priced between -199 and +106 are 68.5% SU when both teams lost their last game, and the favorite posted between a +0 and +4 margin in the last head-to-head.
When those teams failed to score in their last game, they improve to 70% SU, including 73% at home.
The issue? It’s generally better fading teams that closed as underdogs in their last game. That designation doesn’t fit Southampton.
Visitors Southampton also fit a historically profitable system outlined in my EPL predictions. However, it also comes with a caveat.
The system generally works better with road underdogs. However, those road underdogs produce a higher return on investment against home teams off results.
In fact, the ROI percentage of visiting underdogs against teams off a loss between one and three goals is only 2.2%.
Based on conflicting reports, this match is an easy pass with a slight lean to Brentford.
Brentford Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 25 at Liverpool: 0-2, L
- Aug. 17 vs. Crystal Palace: 2-1, W
- Aug. 9 vs. Wolfsburg: 4-4, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Watford: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- July 25 at Benfica: 1-1, D (Friendly)
Southampton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 24 vs. Nottingham Forest: 0-1, L
- Aug. 17 at Newcastle United: 0-1, L
- Aug. 10 vs. Getafe: 0-0, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 7 vs. Lazio: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Millwall: 1-0, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Brentford odds and Southampton odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-2 | 82 | 48 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Newcastle United | 19-5-10 | 62 | 21 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Chelsea | 17-9-8 | 60 | 19 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Fulham | 14-9-11 | 51 | 4 |
| Brighton | 13-13-8 | 51 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | 13-11-10 | 50 | 12 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-17 | 41 | -10 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-15 | 39 | -8 |
| Everton | 8-14-12 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-19 | 37 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-9-16 | 36 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-21 | 21 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-24 | 18 | -49 |
| Southampton | 2-5-27 | 11 | -55 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-14-2 | 55.9% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 18-15-1 | 54.4% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-3 | 39.7% | 6-9-2 | 41.2% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-6 | 58.8% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-19-2 | 41.2% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Leicester City | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-16-2 | 50.0% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-16-4 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% |
| Newcastle United | 20-13-1 | 60.3% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-4 | 41.2% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-21-1 | 36.8% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-2 | 52.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-13-3 | 57.4% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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