- Brentford is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against West Ham.
- Brentford has scored at least one goal in nine straight EPL matches against West Ham.
- My Brentford vs West Ham prediction is Brentford Over 1.5 Goals (-125).
West Ham goes for two straight wins on Saturday in a London derby against Brentford.
The Hammers used a last-gasp winner against Everton last weekend to win 2-1 as home favorites. All three points vaulted West Ham two points ahead of Tottenham for 18th.
Brentford suffered a 2-1 road defeat at Manchester United on Monday. It marks the sixth straight match where the Bees failed to take all three points (D5-L1).
Check out the Premier League odds and my Brentford vs West Ham prediction.
Brentford vs West Ham: Premier League Odds
West Ham vs Brentford: Prediction
Based on Brentford’s potential for positive attacking regression and West Ham’s recent opposition, my Brentford vs West Ham prediction is Brentford Over 1.5 Goals (-125).Â
West Ham kept three straight opponents under this benchmark. However, I’m not buying the defense is fixed all of a sudden.
The Hammers played Wolves, Crystal Palace and Everton over the last three. None outpace Brentford in the season-long expected goals table, with Brentford ranked sixth.
Before that trio of fixtures, West Ham played on the road against Aston Villa. The defense allowed two goals off 2.5 expected.
For the season, West Ham ran really lucky on defense. Through 34 matches, the unit surrendered 58 goals off 60.3 expected goals, per Understat.
Brentford, conversely, offers bettors a case for positive regression. The Bees scored 49 goals off 60.3 xG this season, the third-largest underperformance in the EPL.
At home, Brentford scored 28 times off 36.4 xG. Despite the underperformance, Keith Andrews’ squad still cleared this line nine times in 17 matches.
When Brentford last traveled to West Ham, the attack dominated proceedings. Brentford scored twice against the Hammers’ defense while generating 2.4 expected goals.
Given those factors, I predict Brentford sees some positive regression and clears 1.5 goals on Saturday.
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