- Brighton is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home underdog against Arsenal.
- Arsenal is unbeaten (W3-D2) in the last five league meetings against Brighton.
- My Brighton vs Arsenal prediction is Arsenal 1H Over 0.5 Goals (-145).
Arsenal, as significant road favorites, will look to win a second straight league match against Brighton.Â
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal won 2-1 over Chelsea on Sunday, re-establishing a five-point cushion atop the table. Earlier this season, Arsenal won by the same scoreline against Brighton.Â
The Seagulls benefitted from goalkeeping errors in a 2-1 win over Nottingham Forest on Sunday. Despite that win, Brighton remains 11th in the league table.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Brighton vs Arsenal prediction.Â
Brighton vs Arsenal: Premier League Odds
Arsenal vs Brighton: Prediction
Based on Brighton’s poor defensive record against quality attacks this season, my Brighton vs Arsenal prediction is Arsenal 1H Over 0.5 Goals (-145).Â
Fabian Huerzler’s Brighton has struggled to limit chances as an underdog. That trend repeated itself earlier this season against Arsenal, who scored a first-half goal at home.Â
Underlying metrics suggest it could have looked worse for Brighton. The Seagulls surrendered 2.1 expected goals and 1.6 post-shot xG against Arsenal at the Emirates.Â
That match marked three straight for Brighton, in which they allowed a first-half tally to Arsenal. Across all three, Arsenal averaged 1.2 xG per 45 minutes in the first half.Â
Brighton has closed a home dog north of +200 only once this season. As underdogs to Manchester City, Huerzler’s defense allowed one first-half goal off 1.35 xG and 1.1 psxG.Â
The road record is obviously going to look worse. However, it’s still worth noting Brighton struggled to keep out similarly good attacks.Â
Including the aforementioned trip to Arsenal, Brighton faced five matches against the five-best attacks in the EPL this season. Not once have Brighton kept a first-half clean sheet.Â
Brighton also went to Liverpool midway through February for a FA Cup tie. The defense continued to struggle and allowed a first-half tally.Â
Irrespective of opponent, Arsenal has cleared this line 17 times in 29 matches (58.6%). However, they’ve hit the over six times in their last seven matches.Â
Pair that record with Brighton’s poor defensive record as a dog, and I predict Arsenal clears this line on Wednesday.Â
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