Brighton vs. Everton Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

  • Brighton is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Everton.
  • Five of Brighton's last six EPL matches as a home favorite have resulted in a draw.
  • My Brighton vs. Everton prediction depends on Brightonโ€™s closing price.

Off a blowout win as road dogs in Manchester, Brighton return home for a Saturday clash with Everton.ย 

The Seagulls earned a 3-1 win against Manchester United. Itโ€™s the second win in a row for Brighton, who are unbeaten in their last six league fixtures.ย 

Everton captured a 3-2 home win over Tottenham on Matchday 22, their first league win since December 4. On Matchday 1, Everton fell 3-0 at home to Brighton.ย 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Brighton vs. Everton prediction.ย 

Brighton vs. Everton Odds, Premier League

Brighton vs. Everton Prediction

If Brightonโ€™s three-way moneyline price drops to -150 or lower, my Brighton vs. Everton prediction is the Brighton Moneyline.ย 

The price as of Wednesday afternoon (-160) is a bit high for a team that has struggled as home favorites this season.ย 

To date, Brighton is 1-5-1 (W-D-L) as a home favorite.ย 

But thereโ€™s a key personnel note that should be considered with this Brighton team.ย 

Last weekโ€™s match at Manchester United marked the first time Yankuba Minteh, Kaoru Mitoma, Joao Pedro and Danny Welbeck all started … since Matchday 3!ย 

The quartet of attackers started each of the first three league matches, with Brighton earning two wins and a draw.ย 

Included in that sample is a trip to Everton, where Brighton won 3-0 with a +2.4 post-shot expected goal differential.ย 

Brighton rates out a slight positive regression candidate at home, too, with a +1 goal differential against a +2.4 xGDiff, per fbref.com.ย 

Theyโ€™re also facing an Everton side off a win that could be viewed as slightly lucky. Although they posted a +0.83 xGDiff in that match, they recorded a -0.22 post-shot xGDiff.ย 

History also likes this spot to bet Brighton.ย 

Since 2012, favorites between -150 and -122 in games 20-37 are 74-22, assuming the opponentโ€™s previous game margin is +1, +2 or -2, including 22-0 over the last three years.ย 

When the dog closed a favorite in their last game, the favorite is 36-7 SU, including 22-4 when the dog is coming off a one-goal win.ย 

As a result, see if the price comes down on Brighton and bet it once it reaches -150.ย 

Premier League Match Schedule

First Bet Offer $1,500 FBO
HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
BrightonChelseaFeb. 143 p.m.Amex Stadium
Leicester CityArsenalFeb. 157:30 a.m.King Power Stadium
Aston VillaIpswich TownFeb. 1510 a.m.Villa Park
FulhamNottingham ForestFeb. 1510 a.m.Craven Cottage
Man CityNewcastle UnitedFeb. 1510 a.m.Etihad Stadium
SouthamptonBournemouthFeb. 1510 a.m.St. Mary's Stadium
West Ham UnitedBrentfordFeb. 1510 a.m.London Stadium
Crystal PalaceEvertonFeb. 1512:30 p.m.Selhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesFeb. 169 a.m.Anfield
TottenhamManchester UnitedFeb. 1611:30 a.m.Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Premier League Against the Spread Records

TeamATS RecordATS%Home ATS RecordHome ATS%Road ATS RecordRoad ATS%
Arsenal9-10-547.9%3-6-337.5%6-4-258.3%
Aston Villa8-15-135.4%3-8-129.2%5-7-041.7%
Bournemouth16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Brentford14-8-262.5%8-5-061.5%6-3-263.6%
Brighton & Hove Albion12-11-152.1%4-7-036.4%8-4-165.4%
Chelsea9-13-241.7%4-7-137.5%5-6-145.8%
Crystal Palace13-8-360.4%4-5-345.8%9-3-075.0%
Everton12-9-256.5%6-5-154.2%6-4-159.1%
Fulham14-8-262.5%5-7-041.7%8-2-275.0%
Ipswich Town10-13-143.8%4-9-030.8%6-4-159.1%
Leicester City11-12-147.9%5-7-041.7%6-5-154.2%
Liverpool13-9-158.7%5-5-150.0%8-4-066.7%
Manchester City7-17-029.2%3-8-027.3%4-9-030.8%
Manchester United10-12-245.8%5-7-142.3%5-5-150.0%
Newcastle United13-10-156.3%7-5-058.3%6-5-154.2%
Nottingham Forest16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Southampton9-12-343.8%2-8-122.7%7-4-261.5%
Tottenham Hotspur9-15-037.5%4-8-033.3%5-7-041.7%
West Ham United12-11-152.1%4-7-137.5%8-4-066.7%
Wolverhampton Wanderers10-12-245.8%5-6-145.8%5-6-145.8%

Premier League Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Liverpool17-5-15635
Arsenal14-8-25027
Nottingham Forest14-5-54713
Chelsea12-7-54316
Manchester City12-5-74113
Newcastle United12-5-74113
Bournemouth11-7-64013
Aston Villa10-7-737-3
Fulham9-9-6364
Brighton8-10-634-3
Brentford9-4-11310
Crystal Palace7-9-830-2
Manchester United8-5-1129-6
Tottenham8-3-132711
West Ham United7-6-1127-17
Everton6-8-926-5
Wolves5-4-1519-18
Leicester City3-5-1517-28
Ipswich Town3-7-1416-27
Southampton2-3-199-36

Premier League Betting

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.