- Chelsea is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Aston Villa.
- Chelsea has scored at least one goal in each of its last 30 EPL matches as a favorite.
- My Chelsea vs. Aston Villa prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
Two European hopefuls meet on Sunday at Stamford Bridge with Chelsea hosting Aston Villa.
The Blues find themselves in good form at the moment. A 2-1 win at Leicester City last weekend gave Enzo Maresca’s side a fourth straight result to move third in the table.
Villa dropped points at home in a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace last week, extending Villa’s winless run in the league to four games.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs. Aston Villa prediction.
Chelsea vs. Aston Villa Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | +0.5 (+105) | 3.5 (+115) | +320 |
| Chelsea | -0.5 (-145) | 3.5 (-160) | -135 |
| Draw | +310 |
Chelsea vs. Aston Villa Prediction
Based on Aston Villa’s weak road record against quality opposition, my Chelsea vs. Aston Villa prediction is a SGP: Chelsea Moneyline & Over 1.5 Goals (-105).
Chelsea has run very unlucky in the league this season at home. They enter Matchday 13 with a +1 home goal differential compared to a +6.3 expected goal differential.
On Sunday, they get an Aston Villa side that has struggled as road underdogs this season.
Villa, which started the year unbeaten in four away from home, has lost consecutive road matches to Tottenham and Liverpool.
The underlying metrics support those 4-1 and 2-0 losses, with Villa posted a -1.8 post-shot xGDiff at Spurs and a -0.6 post-shot xGDiff at Liverpool.
Chelsea also dominated Villa when these sides last met in the league.
At Villa Park, the Blues earned a 2-2 draw as road underdogs, winning the xG battle 1.6-1.1 and the post-shot xG battle 0.7-0.4, per fotmob.com.
But this version of Chelsea is far superior to last season’s squad, evidenced by their strong record as a home favorite.
Maresca’s side has closed a home favorite four times this season, finishing 2-2-0 (W-D-L). However, they’ve won the post-shot xG battle in all four matches.
Chelsea also matches a historically profitable system in this spot.
Since 2012, home favorites between -188 and +103 in games 12-31 are 70-21, assuming two factors:
- The favorite has 6-9 days between games
- The underdog closed a favorite in their last game
When those teams fall between -188 and -118, they improve to 47-9 (84%), including 19-1 since 2020.
As a result, take the Chelsea moneyline and pair it with over 1.5 goals for a reduced price.
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