Chelsea vs Brentford Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Liam Rosenior’s first league match with Chelsea comes against upstart Brentford. 

Rosenior replaces Enzo Maresca on a Chelsea side that sits eighth in the Premier League table. Entering this match, the Blues have dropped points in five straight league matches. 

Brentford has won four of its last five and sits only two points out of fourth. Since joining the EPL, Brentford has taken points in seven of nine against Chelsea. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs Brentford  prediction. 

Chelsea vs Brentford: Premier League Odds

Brentford vs Chelsea: Prediction

Based on Brentford’s rest advantage and previous attacking success against Chelsea, my Chelsea vs Brentford prediction is Brentford Over 1.5 Goals (+200). 

The core concern here is Brentford’s record away from home. Only three times all year has Brentford cleared 1.5 goals away from home, including two straight. 

But for the price, it’s worth considering against a Chelsea defense shipping goals. The Blues allowed multiple goals in four of their last five EPL matches. 

Oddly, the lone success came as road underdogs to Manchester City. 

In its last match as a home favorite, Chelsea allowed two goals off three expected as -170 favorites against Bournemouth. 

By post-shot expected goals, Bournemouth and Brentford possess comparable attacks. Additionally, Brentford dominated the Chelsea defense when these teams last met. 

Albeit at home, Brentford scored twice as a home underdog to Chelsea. Keith Andrews’ side notched those tallies off 2.3 post-shot expected goals. 

The Bees also play with a rest advantage against Chelsea on Saturday. 

Rosenior’s Chelsea plays at Arsenal on Wednesday and faces a midweek Champions League early next week. That likely means some rotation is coming from the hosts. 

Those advantages could lead to success by the Bees’ attack. At a minimum, my expectation is the implied probability here (33.3%) is too low.