- Chelsea is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Everton.
- Four of Everton's last six EPL Saturday matches have resulted in a draw.
- My Chelsea vs. Everton prediction depends on the status of James Tarkowski.
Off a come-from-behind win against Fulham, Chelsea return home to face Everton.
Chelsea entered the 80th minute down 1-0 at Craven Cottage. However, two goals in the final 15 minutes earned Chelsea all three points in their pursuit of a Champions League spot.
Everton started strong against Manchester City on Matchday 33, but fell 2-0 following an injury to James Tarkowski. It marks only the second match they’ve lost outright under David Moyes.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs. Everton prediction.
Chelsea vs Everton: Premier League Odds
- Chelsea Moneyline: -165
- Everton Moneyline: +450
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-115/-120)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-110), “No” (-135)
Everton vs Chelsea: Prediction
If Tarkowski features in the Starting XI for Everton on Saturday, my Chelsea vs Everton prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-120).
It’s unlikely bettors will see Tarkowski, who exited on 52 minutes against Man City.
Following that forced substitution, the Everton defense took a major dive. In the first half against City, they surrendered only 0.21 post-shot expected goals.
In the second half, Moyes’ side allowed 2.68 post-shot xG. Before that output, Everton had kept 11 straight opponents under two post-shot xG, per fbref.com.
It’s difficult to quantify the impact of a potential Tarkowski absence. If he misses Saturday’s match, it would mark the first time he’d miss a game since the 2021-22 season.
But if Tarkowski somehow features, it opens the door to Everton limiting a powerful Chelsea attack.
Earlier this season, these sides played to a 0-0 draw at Goodison Park. The match featured only 2.2 combined xG and 1.2 post-shot xG, per fbref.com.
Under Moyes, Everton’s road strategy appears to muddy the game and force a low-scoring contest.
Five of Moyes’ first six road matches stayed under 2.5 goals. In a trip to Anfield to face Liverpool – the closest approximation to Chelsea – the match finished 1-0 with only 0.3 post-shot xG.
However, if Tarkowski fails to feature for Everton, the play on the over/under becomes a pass for me.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | May. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Chelsea | Manchester United | May. 16 | 3:15 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 13-17-6 | 44.4% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-3 | 65.3% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-3 | 40.3% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 18-12-6 | 58.3% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-3 | 43.1% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-4 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 21-14-1 | 59.7% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-14-0 | 61.1% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 13-19-4 | 41.7% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-22-1 | 37.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 18-16-2 | 52.8% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-14-4 | 68 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Aston Villa | 18-9-9 | 63 | 7 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-8-10 | 62 | 12 |
| Brentford | 16-7-13 | 55 | 10 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Fulham | 14-9-13 | 51 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 9-15-12 | 42 | -5 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-16 | 40 | -17 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-17 | 39 | -11 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 4 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-22 | 22 | -42 |
| Leicester City | 5-7-24 | 22 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-6-28 | 12 | -57 |
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