- Chelsea is predicted to be a -1.5-goal home favorite against Man United.
- Chelsea has won eight of its last nine EPL home matches following a league loss.
- My Chelsea vs. Man United prediction is to use Chelsea in a moneyline parlay.
Two teams off bad losses meet on Friday at Stamford Bridge with Chelsea hosting Manchester United.
Chelsea suffered a 2-0 defeat at Newcastle on Matchday 36, ending a three-game winning streak. In good news, Chelsea won eight of its last nine at home off a loss.
Manchester United sustained a 2-0 home defeat against West Ham United on Sunday. That extended United’s winless run in the Premier League to seven matches.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs. Man United prediction.
Chelsea vs Man United: Premier League Odds
- Chelsea Moneyline: -285
- Draw Moneyline: +425
- Manchester United Moneyline: +725
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-140), “No” (+100)
Man United vs Chelsea: Prediction
Based on Chelsea’s strong record off a loss and United’s lack of motivation on Friday, my Chelsea vs Man United prediction is to use Chelsea (-285) in a moneyline parlay.
Much like Aston Villa vs Tottenham, this game is meaningless for the visitors.
United sit 16th in the league after its long winless run (D2-L5). Away from home, they’ve lost three of four, with the lone result coming because of an opponent red card.
For United, the priority is next Wednesday’s Europa League final. Accordingly, bettors should expect a rotated lineup from manager Ruben Amorim.
When these sides met last, United created next to nothing offensively. Save for a Bruno Fernandes penalty, United managed only 0.1 post-shot xG.
For Chelsea, success at home has come in spades when Enzo Maresca’s defense carries the weight.
In 13 home matches where Chelsea allow one or fewer goals, the Blues own a 10-3-0 record, including nine straight victories.
While United scored three goals in two of its previous five road matches, both successes have come against bottom-half defenses.
Chelsea also rates out a slight positive regression candidate at home based on earlier performances this season.
The Blues own a +16 goal differential at Stamford Bridge compared to a +17.7 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
It’s also a natural buy-low spot on the Blues off a loss at Newcastle. That loss came because of an early Chelsea red card while already down a goal.
Given the weight of Friday’s match for Chelsea – a win would move it back into the Champions League places – I’ll use their moneyline in a parlay.
For a parlay partner, use Aston Villa (-265) to bring the price down to -119.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
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