Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Newcastle will try to end its recent struggles as road underdogs with a visit to Chelsea. 

The Magpies improbably captured a 2-1 home win over Manchester United in their last fixture. Despite going down a man, Eddie Howe’s squad used a late winner to take maximum points. 

Chelsea erased a 1-0 deficit at Aston Villa to win 4-1 at Villa Park two weeks ago. The win earned Chelsea maximum points for the fifth time in the last eight matches. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs Newcastle prediction. 

Chelsea vs Newcastle: Premier League Odds

Newcastle vs Chelsea: Prediction

Based on Newcastle’s recent defensive struggles and drastic home/road splits, my Chelsea vs Newcastle prediction is the Chelsea Moneyline (-130). 

Newcastle has struggled immensely on defense of late, even against bad attacks. Surrendering 1.7 expected goals at Tottenham is a concern in and of itself. 

More problematic for this fixture is how Newcastle has performed against good attacks. In recent trips to Liverpool and Manchester City, the Magpies allowed 3.1 and 2.2 xG. 

This season, Newcastle’s results largely correlate with the defense showing up. Only once this season – as home favorites to Leeds – has Newcastle allowed multiple goals and won outright. 

As of this writing, oddsmakers price Chelsea at -175 to achieve that feat, a 64% implied probability. 

Chelsea arrives at this fixture as a massive positive regression candidate offensively. Through 29 league matches, Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea has scored 53 goals off 61.5 expected. 

At home: 23 goals off 30 expected. 

Of note in this meeting – Chelsea’s wins this season correlate with the attack showing up. The Blues cleared 1.5 goals 17 times this year, going 12-5-0 (W-D-L) in those matches. 

Even more concerning for Newcastle is how the Chelsea attack has performed of late. In the last 12 matches, Chelsea generated 2.5 xG per 90, up from 2.1 for the entire season. 

Lastly, teams like Chelsea have performed well in this spot historically. 

Since 2012, home favorites between -150 and -107 in matches 22-37 are 44-9, assuming two factors:

• The favorite’s win percentage falls between 38% and 83%
• The opponent’s previous game margin falls between +1 and +4

Just when those underdogs enter the match off a one-goal win: 28-6. As a result, I predict Chelsea will continue its momentum and earn all three points.